The Group 1 Melbourne Cup takes place at Flemington this Tuesday.
The 3200m race is worth $8.4 million with $4.4 million going to winning connections.
Gold Trip won the race last year. Other recent winners include Verry Elleegant (2021), Twilight Payment (2020), Vow And Declare (2019) and Cross Counter (2018).
See our reasons why each horse CAN and CAN’T win the Melbourne Cup.
1 - Gold Trip
(Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / James McDonald)
CAN: Won the Cup last year and has been racing well of late, including a stellar victory in the Turnbull Stakes and a solid third in the Caulfield Cup. Has the right training duo (Ciaron Maher and David Eustace) who guided him to last year’s triumph. Jockey James McDonald won the race in 2022 (on Verry Elleegant) and has saluted in both the Cox Plate and the Derby over the last two weekends.
CAN’T: Gets the top weight of 58.5kg. No horse has won the Cup with this weight in more than two decades. The last horse to win two in a row was Makybe Diva on her way to a three-peat and she was a freak. Only five horses in history have won the race twice or more.
2 - Alenquer
(Mike Moroney / Damien Oliver)
CAN: Gets three-time winning jockey Damien Oliver aboard. Trainer Mike Moroney had Emissary run second in last year’s Cup and he also trained the winner back in 2000 (Brew).
CAN’T: Hasn’t won since April 2022, is 0/5 in Australia and his best result on these shores is a 5th in the Might And Power. Has been nursing a stone bruise in his hoof and even ‘Ollie’ admitted “it will be difficult for him to win”.
3 - Without A Fight
(Anthony & Sam Freedman / Mark Zahra)
CAN: Caulfield Cup winner who gets last year’s Cup-winning hoop Mark Zahra in the saddle (Zahra chose the ride over Gold Trip). Is 2/3 third-up and will enjoy the expected good track.
CAN’T: Is drawn awkwardly in 16. Ran 13th in the race last year meaning he is 0/1 from at the track and trip. The last Cups double came back in 2001 (Ethereal).
4 - Breakup
(Tatsuya Yoshioka / Kohei Matsuyama)
CAN: Japanese raider who has decent form back home. Ran well his only try at 3200m when 4th in the Group 1 Tenno Sho, which is a quality race. Will relish the firm surface. Saddlecloth 4 has won 12 Cups in the past.
CAN’T: Was only fair in the Caulfield Cup when 8th and 5.7 lengths off the winner. Jockey Kohei Matsuyama has never ridden in Australia.
5 - Vauban
(Willie Mullins / Ryan Moore)
CAN: Has an exemplary record at the distance (5:2-2-1). Trainer Willie Mullins has twice placed in the Cup (with Max Dynamite) and champion jockey Ryan Moore rode the 2014 winner Protectionist. Mullins says this is his strongest chance yet at winning the Cup.
CAN’T: Favourites don’t win the Cup very often. Has never raced in Australia so is somewhat of an unknown entity.
6 - Soulcombe
(Chris Waller / Joao Moreira)
CAN: This has been the target race from a long way out. His lead-up form has been great and he has a good record at Flemington (3:1-1-1). Chris Waller trained the 2021 winner (Verry Elleegant). Joao Moreira rides.
CAN’T: Is not doing himself any favours by frequently missing the jump. If he flops out a few lengths last again it will be detrimental. Is yet to run beyond 2787m.
7 - Absurde
(Willie Mullins / Zac Purton)
CAN: Owns a remarkable career record (15:4-6-2), is a last-start Ebor winner and loves a good track (7:3-4-0). Willie Mullins has not flown him out here to be Vauban’s stable pony.
CAN’T: Would have to improve at least 7.5 lengths to beat Vauban who spanked him at Royal Ascot.
8 - Right You Are
(Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / John Allen)
CAN: Loves Flemington (6:2-1-2) and is prepared by last year’s Cup winning training duo Maher and Eustace. Ran well when 5th in the Caulfield Cup last start.
CAN’T: Has never raced beyond 2400m and has zero wins from four attempts at anything above Listed Level.
9 - Vow And Declare
(Danny O'Brien / Billy Egan)
CAN: Won the Cup for trainer Danny O'Brien in 2019, so we know he gets the trip. He’s also been in great form of late with a pair of fast-finishing seconds. He won the Cup with 52kg and only gets 53kg here.
CAN’T: Drawn wide in 19 and is now an eight-year-old. Only three horses of that age have ever won the Cup. Jockey Billy Egan hasn’t won on him yet.
10 - Cleveland
(Kris Lees / Michael Dee)
CAN: Was a strong winner of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last start to get himself into this race. Has a light weight and a big-race jockey in Michael Dee who won last year’s Caulfield Cup (Durston) and Victoria Derby (Manzoice).
CAN’T: Has had one crack at the trip for a 16th of 18 in this year’s Sydney Cup. Is drawn poorly in barrier 23.
11 - Ashrun
(Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Kerrin McEvoy)
CAN: Was only shaded by Amade in the Geelong Cup which can at times be a super lead-in race. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won the race on three occasions. Training combo Maher and Eustace prepared last year’s Cup winner Gold Trip. Has a Flemington win to his name.
CAN’T: Ran 10th in last year’s Cup after entering the race on the back of a win. Hasn’t won beyond 2500m.
12 - Daqiansweet Junior
(Phillip Stokes / Daniel Stackhouse)
CAN: Has a strong 3200m record (3:1-0-1) including the 2022 Adelaide Cup and a third in last yer’s Sydney Cup. Saddlecloth 12 has housed 11 Cup winners.
CAN’T: His last win came in March 2022 which was that Adelaide Cup triumph. Is 0/2 at Flemington. On the flip side, saddlecloth 12 has not had a winner since 2003.
13 - Okita Soushi
(Joseph O'Brien / Dylan Gibbons)
CAN: UK raider who is 1/1 at the distance back home. Trainer Joseph O’Brien has twice won the race before with Twilight Payment (2020) and Rekindling (2017).
CAN’T: His run in the Caulfield Cup when 12th and 9.9 lengths from the winner was only so-so. Has drawn wide in gate 20.
14 - Sheraz
(Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Jamie Spencer)
CAN: Ran second in the 2022 Sydney Cup at this distance. Trainer Chris Waller has one Cup to his name (with Verry Elleegant in 2021).
CAN’T: Is allergic to winning in Australia with a paltry record of 0/12 including two seconds. Hasn’t won since June 2021. Drawn wide in 22.
15 - Lastotchka
(Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr / Craig Williams)
CAN: Has a decent career record (12:4-2-1) which includes a last-start victory over 3100m in France. Gets a light weight and jockey Craig Williams, who won the race in 2019 (on Vow And Declare).
CAN’T: Is only a tiny thing so may need to avoid any contact where possible. Doesn’t have a good track win to her name and is drawn wide in barrier 21.
16 - Magical Lagoon
(Chis Waller / Mark Du Plessis)
CAN: Was decent in the Geelong Cup when 6th and 1.1 length off the winner. Is in the care of a past Cup-winning trainer in Chris Waller (Verry Elleegant in 2021).
CAN’T: Has not won in Australia from five attempts. Last won a race in July 2022 in Ireland. She has never won over 2400m.
17 - Military Mission
(Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Rachel King)
CAN: Won nicely last start in the Herbert Power at Caulfield. Has a very light weight and Gai Waterhouse, who trained the 2013 winner (Fiorente), is confident he will run top six at least. Is drawn nicely in 5. Jockey Rachel King took out a Group 1 (Coolmore Stud Stakes aboard Ozzmosis) at Flemington on Saturday.
CAN’T: The horse he only just beat in the Herbert Power - United Nations - was only fair at Flemington in the Archer on the weekend. Is yet to win beyond 2400m.
18 - Serpentine
(Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Jye McNeil)
CAN: Is drawn perfectly for a horse who likes to lead or be right near the speed. Jockey Jye McNeil has previously won the race in 2020 (on Twilight Payment) for the same owner, Lloyd Williams. Gai Waterhouse has trained a Cup winner in the past (Fiorente in 2013).
CAN’T: Ran 20th in the race last year after being eased down by jockey John Allen. Has three career wins and none above 2400m. The last time saddlecloth 18 won the Cup was way back in 1932.
19 - Virtuous Circle
(Liam Howley / Craig Newitt)
CAN: Ran second in the 2023 ATC Derby over 2400m at Randwick and was ok in the Geelong Cup when 8th and 4.6 lengths off the winner.
CAN’T: Is 0/3 at Flemington, is 1/9 on good tracks and his last win came in August 2022. Has never won beyond 1500m.
20 - More Felons
(Chris Waller / Jamie Kah)
CAN: His fast-finishing 5th in the Geelong Cup was a decent Cup trial. Was ok in the Ebor when carrying 61kgs to finish 8th and 3.3 lengths behind Absurde. Has won at 3298m and 3381m in the past. Is prepared by 2021 Cup-winning trainer Chris Waller.
CAN’T: Is drawn wide in 24, hasn’t won since December 2022 and will likely be back in the field.
21 - Future History
(Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Hollie Doyle)
CAN: He owns a strong career record (16:6-4-1), missing the top three just five times. Is 1/1 at Flemington, well weighted and has a top jockey engaged in Hollie Doyle. Is in the care of last year’s winning trainers Maher and Eustace.
CAN’T: Hasn’t won beyond 2500m and last start was unable to defeat Cleveland who is $34 (at time of publishing) in this.
22 - Interpretation
(Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Teo Nugent)
CAN: Won the Bendigo Cup over 2400m last start. Is in the right stable with the 2023 Cup-winning training partnership of Maher and Eustace.
CAN’T: The Bendigo Cup victory was his first in 10 attempts in Australia, so he doesn’t win out of turn. Is 0/6 at Flemington with just one third to his name.
23 - Kalapour
(Kris Lees / Zac Lloyd)
CAN: Saluted in the Archer at Flemington on Saturday to book a spot in the Cup. Races well on good tracks (14:4-2-4) and his recent form has been solid.
CAN’T: Has not won beyond 2551m and has not yet won beyond Group 3 level. Might be a class or two below a Melbourne Cup.
24 - True Marvel
(Matthew Smith / Ben Thompson)
CAN: Ran third in the Brisbane Cup over 3200m in June this year and arguably should have won the Sydney Cup in April. Has wins at 3000m, 3100m, 3200m and 3800m.
CAN’T: He has failed to trouble the scorers in his last four, getting no closer than 8th. His last win was a Hamilton hurdle race. Is 0/3 at Flemington.
SELECTIONS
1 - Soulcombe
2 - Vauban
3 - Without A Fight
4 - Vow And Declare
5 - Gold Trip
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