Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne has declared Friday night’s Elimination Final between Carlton and Sydney the easiest game he’s had to analyse this year.
On paper, this will be a battle between the best clearance and contest team in the competition in the Blues up against a poor clearance and contest team in the Swans.
On the flip side, Sydney are an excellent team at scoring from turnover, while Carlton is below average.
“It’s probably one of the easier games I’ve had to analyse for the year, this one – it’s just about who gets it on their terms,” Hoyne told SEN’s Sportsday.
“Clearly Carlton’s strength is around stoppage and clearance. Number one for clearance. The concern for Sydney is they’re 14th in conceding points from clearance. It’s a huge concern.
“Number one contested possession team, Carlton. Number 13, Sydney.”
Hoyne believes the key for the Swans will simply be breaking even at stoppages. If they can take Carlton’s one-wood away, it could swing the game into the chaotic style they desire.
“Somehow Sydney have just got to get anywhere near breaking even (at stoppages). Just get close to breaking even,” he said.
“The underrated aspect for Carlton is what they’re doing behind the ball. They are the third hardest team in the competition to score against when the ball goes inside 50 and that has also been a bit of a strength for the Swans.
“Where the Swans can get them is the flipside. We talk about the turnover game a lot. They have the third best turnover game in the competition over the last six weeks, the Swans. The Blues have the fourth worst turnover game.
“It’s pretty much as simple as that.
“If Sydney can somehow break even in this midfield group, they’re going to be a chance given how well their turnover game is going compared to Carlton, but if they don’t and if they concede 60 or so entries inside 50 like they have been over the last six weeks because their clearance and contest is so poor, then that’s probably going to feed into the best player in the competition at the moment in Charlie Curnow.
“Very, very simple game to analyse on Friday night.”
If Sydney is to get on top in the clearance game, they will need Luke Parker to have a big game.
Hoyne however says the Swans’ co-skipper is significantly out of form.
“The good thing for the Swans at the moment is that Chad Warner is back. He’s back to impacting games. He’s having the fifth most impact of any midfielder over the last six weeks. Six goals in six weeks. His kick rating is well above AFL average,” he said.
“This might surprise people, but Luke Parker needs to get going. If they’re any chance to minimise the damage from contest and clearance, this guy is so important.
“He’s a bottom 25 player in the competition the last six weeks. Only had 20+ disposals in three of six matches. Under double-figure contested possessions in three of six matches and hasn’t kicked a goal for two months. He needs to get going.”
Hoyne also believes Sydney should put defensive work into breakout Carlton defender Nic Newman, saying he is the key to their counter-attack.
“Nic Newman, you’ve got to do something about him. His ability to control the game through taking marks and protecting their back six is really important,” he said.
“GWS took that away. He only had four marks against GWS. In the previous five weeks he’d been averaging 10. Do something about this guy behind the ball.”
Carlton has a tough selection call to make in the ruck department. They omitted Marc Pittonet for their Round 24 clash with GWS, forcing Harry McKay into the backup ruck role.
Hoyne says the Blues should stick with that mix, saying Tom De Koning has had an excellent six weeks in the ruck.
“I just want to put this on the agenda for Carlton supporters as well,” he said.
“His best position, the last six weeks, he is clearly a ruckman. He is not a forward.
“I would not be playing Pittonet. I would be keeping this really simple. Let this guy go.
“As a ruckman over the last six weeks he’s been the eighth best ruckman in the competition. As a forward, sixth worst forward in the competition.
“Just put Harry McKay in the ruck for five minutes per quarter. The second ruck role, we talk about it a lot, it’s 20 minutes a game. Don’t lose sleep over it.”
This is an enormous swing in two months, with Hoyne saying mid-season that Pittonet statistically was a significantly better ruckman than De Koning. The young Blue has clearly broken out since re-signing.
And who gets the all-important Charlie Curnow matchup? Hoyne believes Robbie Fox might be the guy.
“A little shout out to Robbie Fox. He might be the one that gets Charlie Curnow on the weekend. He had a really good finals series last year and when he’s played on key names this year, he’s had a pretty good record,” he said.
The Blues are likely to make at least three changes, with Sam Docherty, Patrick Cripps and Jesse Motlop available to return, while they will also have to make a call on Marc Pittonet and Matthew Kennedy.
Sydney is expected to get back Tom Papley and Justin McInerney from injury.