We’re one week into the bye rounds but only two teams will take the weekend off in Round 13.
We see a return to Thursday night footy this weekend while the Demons and Magpies meet in the first King’s Birthday clash in what could be a cracker.
With Essendon and Carlton also meeting on Sunday, it’s a huge round of footy that is set to have a big say on the season.
Check out who we think will win and why.
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Sydney v St Kilda
Thursday - 7.50pm – SCG
Thursday night footy is back!
The Swans will play host to the Saints in a clash that will shape both sides finals hope.
After a poor month, Ross Lyon's men will head to the SCG on the back of the bye and the murmurs out of Moorabbin is that they've had a great week on the track.
Their recent record at the SCG and against the Swans isn't great, they haven't won at the SCG since 2009 and they’ve lost three of their last four against John Longmire’s team.
After getting completely smashed by Hawthorn’s young midfield in round 11, the likes of Jack Steele, Seb Ross, Brad Crouch and Jade Gresham will be looking to respond against a dynamic midfield group.
A clear area for the Saints to exploit is Sydney’s undermanned defence, albeit the Swans will welcome back Dane Rampe, the likes of Max King and Anthony Caminiti will look to dominate in the air.
After winning two on the trot, the Swans will see this clash as a chance to claim a big scalp and head into the second half of the year with some serious momentum.
Sydney is set to regain co-captain Dane Rampe and key forward Joel Amartey
Rampe hasn’t been seen since Round 4 but the 2016 All-Australian and 2019 Bob Skilton medallist looks a lock to start on Thursday night.
Coming up against a slow St Kilda midfield, the midfield trio of Chad Warner, Errol Gulden and James Rowbottom could seriously get on top and prove too much to handle for the Saints.
Tipping against the Swans at home is fraught with danger and I won’t be doing that.
Tip: Sydney by 14 points.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide
Friday - 7:50pm - Marvel Stadium
Over two months ago, Ken Hinkley’s position at Port Adelaide was labelled untenable by the club’s only premiership captain, Warren Tredrea.
On Friday night, that same word will be on the lips of many but for a different reason: Un-TEN-able.
Port is shooting for 10 straight victories on Friday night, an outcome that would have been 10,000-1 late in the club’s Round 4 clash against Sydney.
Nevertheless, it’s fitting that Ken Hinkley has poured the pressure on his club to re-sign him in his final contract year after such a dominant season and creates further intrigue to 2023 and the coaching market.
Five of those 10 wins have come by less than two goals, with Hinkley’s troops becoming the kings of the close games this season.
The Bulldogs had also found themselves on the right end of a few close games earlier this season, but a seven-point loss to the Suns and a 22-point defeat to the Cats suggests that mantle is teetering.
They also lost a thriller to Port earlier in the season in Round 5 when the two sides met, a game the stats suggested should have been almost identical except for a tackle count heavily favouring the Power.
That might change under the roof at Marvel Stadium, but Port is firing on all cylinders and the headlines are already written for Hinkley to make it 10 straight.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 22 points.
Seb Mottram
Hawthorn v Brisbane
Saturday - 1.45pm – MCG
It may not be the headline game of Round 13, but this clash between the Hawks and the Lions could become interesting if the Hawks can start well.
The Hawks, barring last weekend’s horror first half against the Power, have started to hit a good patch of form after wins against the Eagles and Saints.
Sam Mitchell’s side will be boosted by the return of their captain James Sicily from suspension, while it will be interesting to see if former first-round draft pick Denver Grainger-Barras will be added to the side to help combat the Lions talented forward line.
Buoyed by Mitch Lewis’ form after his return from injury, the Hawks have averaged 108 points per game over the last three weeks and despite only scoring 23 points in the first half against the Power, Mitchell’s side were able to outscore the Power 73-46 in the second half of the match.
The Lions are fresh off the bye but will be without their former skipper in Dayne Zorko who will once again miss due to suspension.
Brisbane’s defence will be boosted by key defender Jack Payne who returns after sustaining a concussion in Brisbane’s Round 11 loss to Adelaide.
Saturday’s match will take place at the MCG, a ground that has often been unkind to the Lions as they have won one out of their last five matches at the venue. However, their one win was an inspired victory which came against the Demons in last year’s semi-final, and they should win again at the ‘G this weekend.
Tip: Brisbane by 25 points.
Marcus Beeck
Adelaide v West Coast
Saturday - 4:35pm – Adelaide Oval
Since Round 3, Adelaide has lost once at the Adelaide Oval and that was to Collingwood. In that time, they have comfortably beaten the likes of Fremantle, Carlton and St Kilda and taken down Brisbane and Port Adelaide.
They have been an incredible offensive team at home, with scores of 95, 121, 118, 111 and 117 in wins this year.
All of that is to say this clash with West Coast on Saturday could be incredibly ugly.
The Eagles are clearly the worst team in the AFL this year and even though they fought hard for three quarters against the Magpies last week, they lost more players to injury and still lost by 63.
The Crows are young, hungry and play in front of an electric crowd at home. This has 100-point bloodbath written all over it if they want to take it.
Of course, they could just cruise to a comfortable win without truly putting their foot on the Eagles’ throat.
Tip: Adelaide by 77 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Fremantle v Richmond
Saturday - 7.25pm - Optus Stadium
Saturday’s match is poised to be a pivotal clash for two sides on the outside looking in of the finals hunt.
Fremantle are currently riding a four-game winning streak, having bounced back strongly from their less-than-ideal start to the season.
On the other hand, Richmond is keeping themselves just within sight of the top eight, having won three of their last five in an effort to offset winning just one game through the first seven rounds.
With both clubs needing all the momentum they can get, the Dockers and Tigers will certainly be giving their all.
Fremantle has looked a completely different side since changing from a conservative game style to a method of free-flowing ball movement, and their dramatic increase in points per game has reflected that.
Yet this hasn’t come at the cost of their trademark stingy defence, which was very much on display in last week’s impressive victory over the Demons.
This doesn’t bode well for a Richmond side that has had plenty of trouble scoring this season, boasting the 13th ranked attack as they are plagued with issues with their inside 50 entries.
Considering all but one of Fremantle’s wins have seen them score over 100 points, Richmond will likely be looking to turn this match into a scrap, something which we have seen them do multiple times this season.
The Tigers certainly have the talent to take down the red-hot Fremantle, but the Dockers on their home turf are certainly a tough task.
Tip: Fremantle by 17 points.
Jack Makeham
North Melbourne v GWS
Sunday - 3:20pm - Blundstone Arena
The GWS Giants venture down South to face North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena on Sunday afternoon.
The Giants have played only three matches at the venue in their history and have won one, lost one and drawn a match. That draw came against the Kangaroos in 2021 where the Giants came from 28 points down at three-quarter time to secure two points.
GWS also fought back in their Round 12 loss to Richmond but would be disappointed not come away with the win after registering 70 inside-50’s to Richmond’s 47.
The Kangaroos would also be bitterly disappointed at letting slip a golden opportunity to snap a nine-game losing streak against Essendon. Despite the one-goal loss, fans would’ve loved the performances of North’s young core with Will Phillips, Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw all having a big impact.
In recent weeks, Cameron Zurhaar and Nick Larkey have been able to boot multiple goals which has helped North Melbourne remain competitive in a lot of their games.
Blundstone Arena was once a fortress for North Melbourne but the Kangaroos have won just one of their past 10 matches at the ground.
It is expected to rain over the weekend in Hobart so whichever team best adapts to the conditions should secure the four competition points.
Tip: North Melbourne by 19 points.
Charles Goodsir
Carlton v Essendon
Sunday – 7:15pm - MCG
Football’s newest blockbuster time slot makes its debut in Round 13 as Carlton hosts Essendon at the MCG in what both clubs will be hoping will become an annual King’s Birthday Eve clash.
The Blues and Bombers enter the match with contrasting fortunes, with Michael Voss coming under increasing pressure as the losses continue to pile up.
As for the Dons, they continue to ride the wave of positivity in Brad Scott’s first year as coach, winning their last three games to sit inside the top eight.
The good news for Carlton is their side should match up well against Essendon despite their struggles of late, with tall forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay a chance to take advantage of the undersized Bombers defence.
Despite Carlton’s form, things are going to click at some point in the next few weeks as their draw softens somewhat. We’re tipping an upset on King’s Birthday Eve.
Tip: Carlton by 11 points.
Laurence Rosen
Melbourne v Collingwood
Monday 3:20pm - MCG
The inaugural King’s Birthday clash is set to be a big one with many expecting these two sides to compete at the pointy end in 2023.
While Collingwood and Melbourne are both highly-rated, their form lines haven’t married up so far this year with the Magpies getting off to a flyer while the Demons have been solid without beating any good sides.
They won’t get a better opportunity than against Collingwood on Monday to finally take a scalp, particularly with Jordan De Goey out injured.
While Melbourne have perhaps the best 22 on paper and effectively a full list to choose from, they’ll need to play better than they have across the last year to beat a Collingwood side that’s 11-1 this season and 23-2 in home and away games since Round 10, 2022.
In that same period, the Demons are 15-10 in home and away games but none of those wins have come against top four sides, making this opportunity crucial for the men in red and blue.
To be frank, there’s not much telling anyone to pick Melbourne from a statistical or form point of view, but everyone is certain they have another gear to go to as this side showed they are capable of elite football in 2021 and early last season.
The midfield battle will be crucial with De Goey out, and while Collingwood have enough cattle to run through the centre bounces, Melbourne will be hoping to exploit the Pies in that area with Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney hoping to have a big say.
While it almost feels like a must-win for Melbourne if they want to be considered among the best sides in it, it’d be foolish to pick against Collingwood at the moment.
Tip: Collingwood by 16 points.
Lachlan Geleit