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The 12 certainties of the Round 6 weekend

2023-04-22T09:00+10:00

Back for another week, the SEN.com.au team gives you an insight into how every game will play out across the weekend.

Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.

But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.

Last week we went 17/24 and we'll endeavour to go bigger again.

Here's what we considers certainties for the weekend's games of Round 6.

Port Adelaide v West Coast

Todd Marshall to kick two or more goals

Todd Marshall has kicked at least one goal in his last 21 games for the Power and he’ll make that 22 on Saturday against the West Coast Eagles.

One of the most underrated key forwards in the game, Marshall is such a tough match up given his ability to impact both on the ground and in the air.

Given Port Adelaide should make light work of the Eagles, expect Marshall to be given plenty of opportunities to kick at least two goals.

Liam Duggan to have 15 or more disposals

Classy defender Liam Duggan has had a pretty solid year for the Eagles.

A beautiful left foot kick, Adam Simpson’s side love getting the ball in his hands meaning you’d think he’ll eclipse the 15 barometer with ease.

The last three times he’s played Ken Hinkley’s Power he’s had over 15 disposals and has had a genuine impact on the result of the game.

Expecting that to be the case this weekend, albeit not impacting the final outcome of the game (no offence).

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Greater Western Sydney v Brisbane

Daniher and Hipwood to combine for 3+ goals, 7+ marks

Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood have hit form in the past few weeks.

Last week against North Melbourne they combined for nine goals (five behinds) and 23 marks.

In the Round 5 win over Collingwood they paired up for 4.1 and 11 marks with Daniher also starring around the ground.

The Lions won by 40 points at Manuka last year, kicking 15.9.(99), so expect them to be amongst the goals again with their key forwards playing a pivotal role.

However, one of them is likely to get Sam Taylor who is a defensive star for the Giants, so we’re going for a combination between the duo.

Three or more goals and seven or more marks between the duo looks good.

Coniglio to have 20+ disposals, 3+ clearances

Stephen Coniglio is in fairly good nick in 2023.

The former skipper is averaging 29 disposals and more than six clearances per game for the Giants this season.

On the back of a season-high 33 touches against Hawthorn last week, we’re backing ‘Cogs’ to again be in the numbers against the Lions.

Coniglio to hit at least 20 disposals and to have three or more clearances looks close to a certainty.

Andrew Slevison

Geelong v Sydney

Mitch Duncan to have 20+ disposals

While Mitch Duncan was quiet in last weekend’s win over West Coast with 14 disposals, don’t expect him to remain below the 20-touch mark.

That performance was the first time he’s dipped below 23 disposals in his last seven games, and his first-up outing against Hawthorn in Round 4 where he collected 31 touches proves injury isn’t hampering him.

In last year’s Grand Final against the Swans, the veteran was influential with one goal and 27 disposals.

He should cruise past 20 touches on his home deck.

Logan McDonald to kick 2+ goals

Logan McDonald will be the focus of Sydney’s attack way from home on Saturday night.

With both Lance Franklin and Joel Amartey out, expect the Swans to look for McDonald heading inside 50.

The 21-year-old has kicked 11 goals from five games so far this season, and has kicked at least one major in each of his appearances.

Given he should get more supply against the Cats, you’d expect him to at least meet his season average with two goals.

Lachlan Geleit

Hawthorn v Adelaide

Newcombe to rack up 25+ touches

It should be a rinse-and-repeat job for Jai Newcombe this week.

Will Day remains out, while Cam Mackenzie didn’t show as much as in previous rounds when coming on as the sub against the Giants.

It’ll be all about opportunity, and Newcombe attended 88 per cent of centre bounces last week. There’s no reason for that to change and given he got 31 touches in Round 5, 25 is a fair expectation for the 21-year-old.

Rory Laird for 25+ disposals

It’ll be rinse and repeat for another midfielder on Sunday afternoon.

One can only assume that most of Hawthorn's attention will go into quelling the enormous influence Jordan Dawson has enjoyed over the past fortnight.

That’ll only help Laird, who feasted last week against the Blues. It’s worth noting that last time he played the Hawks, Laird dined out with 42 touches.

Seb Mottram

Carlton v St Kilda

Alex Cincotta 15 plus disposals on debut

Alex Cincotta isn’t being brought into this Carlton side to play a lockdown defensive role. He will be in there to provide some rebound and get the footy.

With Adam Saad and Sam Docherty both out of the side, there are disposals up for grabs in the Blues’ backline.

Expect Cincotta to find plenty of the footy on debut, coming off 37 disposals in the VFL.

Jack Sinclair 30 plus disposals

Jack Sinclair has turned into one of the game’s most damaging half back flankers over the last two seasons and arguably his best performance of 2022 came against Carlton.

He had 37 disposals, 11 marks, six inside 50s and six rebound 50s – and three Brownlow votes.

Since the Blues still don’t put any defensive energy into opposition ball movers, it’s hard to see Sinclair not carving them up again.

Nic Negrepontis

Gold Coast v North Melbourne

Touk Miller 25+ touches and 6+ clearances

While Touk Miller may not be making the dominant push for the Brownlow this year many hoped he would, the Gold Coast midfielder is still having a stellar season.

Miller is averaging 27.6 touches and 7.4 clearances per game so far, right in line with his marks since his breakout season in 2021.

With so much responsibility placed on the shoulders of Miller at the Suns, it would be reasonable to see him drop off occasionally.

Yet the superstar has only fallen below 25 possessions once this season, demonstrating a remarkable level of consistency.

Miller will do what he does best against the Dockers.

Todd Goldstein 12+ disposals and 25+ hitouts

Everyone at North Melbourne will be cheering for Goldstein to have a big impact in his 300th game.

The ruckman has been the epitome of consistency for the Roos since his debut in 2008, with his 2023 averages of 13 touches and 30 hitouts a game sitting right in line with his career stats.

While the ruck battle will become much tougher with the Suns welcoming back Jarrod Witts to their ranks, Goldstein has proven time and time again that he’s up to the task.

Expect Goldy to put together a strong showing in this milestone affair.

Jack Makeham

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