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Who will win and why? The predictions and tips for Round 6

2023-04-20T16:01+10:00

Gather Round rolls into the traditional Anzac Round, which will see Fremantle host Western Bulldogs to start on Friday night.

There’s some massive games to come in a round that stretches all the way to Tuesday afternoon with the traditional blockbuster between Collingwood and Essendon.

Before we get there, Saturday is highlighted by the Grand Final rematch between the Cats and Swans down at GMHBA Stadium, while Carlton’s sold out clash against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium one of the most anticipated games of the entire round.

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Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs

Friday - 8.10pm - Optus Stadium

Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs will take centre stage on Friday night in a game that isn't your standard Friday night blockbuster.

Albeit notching their second win of the year at Norwood Oval, the Dockers were hardly convincing against Gold Coast last week.

Justin Longmuir's side has a strong recent record over the Bulldogs and they'll be desperate to string back-to-back wins for the first time this year.

As for the Doggies, they head to Perth after a poor start to the year, managing just two wins with a cast percentage of 76.8.

You get the feeling Luke Beveridge will be rallying around his troops as they fly over the Nullarbor in hostile territory.

Rory Lobb will face off against his old side and the Dpgs will need him to lift after an underwhelming start to the year considering all the hype in the off-season.

It feels like the result depends on which forward line fires on the night.

Can Luke Jackson and Jye Amiss combine for 8+ goals?

Will Aaron Naughton, Mitch Hannan and Lobb work it out and kick a score?

That's where it'll be run and won.

Tipping Fremantle with no confidence.

Tip: Fremantle by 8 points.

Hugh Fitzpatrick

Port Adelaide v West Coast

Saturday - 1.45pm - Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide may have lost their first five matches against West Coast at Adelaide Oval, but there shouldn’t be an upset by the Eagles on Saturday afternoon.

The Power come into the match with a good run of form after impressive wins against the Swans in Sydney and against the Dogs in the wet.

After an overall tough start to their 2023 fixture, the Power come up against an Eagles side that has once again been crippled by injury. The Power on the other hand nearly have a clean bill of health provided key forward Charlie Dixon recovers in time from a jarred knee.

The Power’s resurgence in 2023 has been led by the likes of Connor Rozee and Zak Butters, with the young midfielders providing plenty for Ken Hinkley through the middle.

For the Eagles, it’s a mix of good news and bad news on the injury front. Veteran Shannon Hurn should return to the side after he was managed last week, while captain Luke Shuey might also be available after recovering from a hamstring injury he sustained in Round 3.

Unfortunately for Eagles fans, two-time All-Australian Elliot Yeo has suffered a groin injury and is set for a month on the sidelines while their ruckman Bailey Williams remains under an injury cloud.

The Eagles have shown fight despite their injury list in their previous three games against Fremantle, Melbourne and Geelong.

However, they still lost all three matches by 40-plus margins, so a near full strength Port Adelaide at home should deliver a similar result.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 40 points.

Marcus Beeck

GWS Giants v Brisbane Lions

Saturday - 4.35pm - Manuka Oval

Both GWS and Brisbane are coming off wins in Gather Round, setting things up nicely for the opening game of the season in the nation’s capital.

Largely off the back of Harry Himmelberg’s heroics in the dying stages against Hawthorn, the Giants recorded an important win over Hawthorn, while the Lions smashed North Melbourne in Mt. Barker.

The Giants will be relishing the comforts of their home away from home at Manuka Oval, but will be hoping to turn the tables after 40-point loss in the corresponding game in Canberra late last season.

Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher combined for nine goals, with the aforementioned Himmelberg facing a big task to curtain Brisbane’s forward line.

We’re expecting Brisbane to post a win here, but the Giants are a sneaky chance if they find a bit of momentum during the game.

Tip: Brisbane by 19 points.

Laurence Rosen

Geelong v Sydney

Saturday - 7.25pm - GMHBA Stadium

The Geelong Cats will play at GMHBA Stadium for the first time this season and what better occasion than the Grand Final rematch against the Sydney Swans. A trip to Kardinia Park is considered the toughest task in footy. Since 2013, Geelong have an 85 per cent win record (55 wins and 10 losses).

However, the Swans don’t fear GMHBA stadium like other teams and have won three of their past four matches against Geelong at the venue and have held the Cats to under 90 points in all games. The key to a Swans victory is whether the mental scars from their 81-point thrashing in the 2022 Grand Final against the Cats can be overcome.

The Swans will still be without the McCartin brothers, whilst Lance Franklin remains out. Despite the significant omissions, the Swans proved during Gather Round that they aren’t reliant on their stars to secure a win. The Cats are also dealing with injuries to Tyson Stengle and Rhys Stanley.

This has all the hallmarks to be a thrilling Saturday night clash with Geelong looking for three consecutive wins and the Swans wanting redemption for last year's Grand Final.

Tip: Sydney by 9 points

Charles Goodsir

Hawthorn v Adelaide

Sunday - 1.10pm - UTAS Stadium

Adelaide has a chance to consolidate their strong start to the 2023 season when they take on Hawthorn in Round 6. However, they will have to navigate a trip to Tasmania and get themselves up for the clash to do so.

The Crows’ forward line is firing on all cylinders right now, with the three key forwards all playing distinct roles while Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele might be the best dynamic half forward duo in the competition.

It’s hard to see Hawthorn having the personnel down back to restrict them, particularly given the form of the Adelaide midfield unit. Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird have both had strong starts to the season and will likely give the Crows clearance control.

The Hawks are still without Will Day and Mitch Lewis, arguably their two most important players outside of James Sicily, while Adelaide has a completely full list to choose from.

Hawthorn impressed against GWS in Gather Round, but their avenues to goal are inconsistent and hard to trust.

Crows win comfortably.

Tip: Adelaide by 39 points

Nic Negrepontis

Carlton v St Kilda

Sunday - 3.20pm - Marvel Stadium

A huge top four clash beckons at a sold-out Marvel Stadium on Sunday with Carlton and St Kilda facing off with just one loss each to their names through five rounds.

While both sides have only been defeated once, it’s St Kilda who have impressed more than their opponents so far in 2023 with their percentage 144.1 compared to Carlton’s at 96.3.

The Saints will be buoyed by the inclusion of captain Jack Steele and forward Tim Membrey and coach Ross Lyon will be thrilled to add some genuine class on top of their workmanlike outfit.

Last time out between the sides, it was the Saints who claimed victory with half back Jack Sinclair dominating to claim the three votes.

Off the back of a heavy defeat against Adelaide, Carlton will be desperate to bounce back and with some key players out, they may need to rely on their star forwards Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow to have big games to give them the upper hand in this one.

The game being under the roof could help that cause, with Curnow in particular holding a stunning record at the venue – a ground Carlton has won at in seven of their last eight attempts.

If St Kilda’s in-form defensive group of Callum Wilkie, Josh Battle and Dougal Howard can restrict Carlton’s talls, their game is probably in good enough shape everywhere else to salute.

Tip: St Kilda by 17 points.

Lachlan Geleit

Gold Coast v North Melbourne

Sunday - 4.40pm - Heritage Bank Stadium

It’s tough to judge these two sides without contrasting standards.

Gold Coast’s season could barely have been more disappointing, a point epitomised by Stuart Dew’s side’s loss to Fremantle last week.

The Suns couldn’t put away the game when they should have and turned into a rabble late in the clash against the Dockers.

On the other hand, we’ve got by and large what we expected from Alastair Clarkson’s North Melbourne. Their form is not strong, but better than that of the Suns. Given the expectations on both sides pre-season, the Roos are clearly enjoying a better start to the year, an unusual fact after being beaten by 75 points last year.

On paper, Gold Coast has got a side that can and should win, but to tip the Suns would be to take them on trust.

And as they’ve proved over the first five weeks, they’re arguably the most untrustworthy team in the competition

The Suns and Roos match up evenly, averaging similar numbers in inside 50s, clearances and contested possessions.

But after last week’s shellacking against Brisbane, Clarkson’s defence will undoubtedly play a tighter man-on-man game.

If Ben McKay and Griffin Logue can limit Ben King and Jack Lukosius, only one other Sun has kicked more than five goals in 2023.

It’s not a model that’s sustainable for Dew and not a model that will benefit the Suns here.

Tip: North Melbourne by 11 points.

Seb Mottram

Melbourne v Richmond

Monday - 7.25pm - MCG

This year’s Anzac Eve clash between the Tigers and Demons has plenty of weight behind it.

Richmond comes into the match desperate for a win to get their season back on track, having secured just one win so far this season.

These early struggles come as a surprise to many who expected the Tigers to return to the top of the competition in 2023, however their lack of cohesion combined with a string of injuries has resulted in a side that can’t get themselves over the line.

Meanwhile, Melbourne’s hot start to the season hit yet another snag last week, as the Demons were completely outworked by a fiery Essendon side.

Melbourne have largely looked like the juggernaut we’ve come to expect them to be for the majority of the year, yet teams like the Bombers and Lions have shown that these Demons are gettable.

While the Demons have had injury issues of their own, they look to be almost out of the woods, something which cannot be said for the Tigers.

Richmond still has holes all over the ground, but by far the one that will have the biggest impact on this matchup is the absence of Tom Lynch.

Without their centrepiece going forward, Richmond’s attack has had its fair share of struggles, relying on a 34-year-old Jack Riewoldt and rookie Samson Ryan to pick up the slack.

Without Lynch to worry about, Melbourne’s star defensive duo of Steven May and Jake Lever could have their way with this banged-up Richmond unit, a matchup which the Tigers have to be concerned about.

In order to keep things competitive, Damien Hardwick will want to turn this into a scrappy affair, similar to Richmond’s Round 3 match against Collingwood.

Yet with their issues piling up week after week, right now the Tigers look outgunned heading into the clash and will need to put together their best performance all season if they’re to upset the Demons on Monday night.

Tip: Melbourne by 16 points.

Jack Makeham

Collingwood v Essendon

Sunday - 3.20pm - MCG

This is the first time since 2000 that both Collingwood and Essendon have entered an Anzac Day clash as top four teams.

They are two of the form sides of the competition each with 4-1 win-loss records - sitting third and second on the ladder respectively - making this an extra intriguing edition of a very special match.

The Magpies found another way to win last week, beating St Kilda with a more defensive approach. They actually forced the Saints back through the middle and kicked five of their 10 goals through turnovers in the middle. It was a cunning plan from Crag McRae which worked a treat. The margin was only six points in the end, but they had done enough early in the last quarter before weathering the storm.

The Bombers are riding the high of a massive win over the highly-rated Melbourne. Their 27-point triumph came off the back of some dynamic attacking footy. It was just the second time the Dees were forced into conceding 100-plus points in a game since 2019.

Essendon’s midfield of Zach Merrett, Dylan Shiel and Darcy Parish has been in strong form this year, averaging a combined 88.4 disposals per game. Now they will have to be without suspended captain Merrett which presents as an issue in the middle.

Collingwood will be without an important player in Taylor Adams, who was also suspended, but do get Jordan De Goey back which is a massive boost.

Despite also losing Dan McStay (finger) and Nathan Murphy (concussion), we’re siding with the Pies to claim their second straight Anzac Day match with veteran Scott Pendlebury to win another Anzac Medal.

Tip: Collingwood by 12 points.

Andrew Slevison

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