There is no such thing as a certainty in footy.
Or is there?
We’ve had certainties for Easter Thursday and Good Friday, but with seven other games remaining in Round 4, we’ve taken a close look to come up with one certainty for each team for the remaining matches.
Take a look at our certainties for the rest of the Easter weekend action.
Adelaide v Fremantle
Izak Rankine to kick two or more goals
Izak Rankine has had a great start to life as a Crow.
With eight goals already to his name, Rankine has booted at least two majors in each appearance this year and is coming off a starring performance in the Showdown win against Port Adelaide last weekend.
Given the recruit dominated against the Dockers in their unofficial practice match ahead of the season, he has exposed form against their defenders and will back himself in to wreak havoc again.
Caleb Serong to have 25+ disposals
While many opposing teams focus on stopping Andrew Brayshaw, his running mate Caleb Serong might be having the biggest impact on his side’s performances.
Coming off a best on ground in last weekend’s Western Derby, Serong will hope to continue his good form as he averages 31.7 disposals a game in 2023.
He should comfortably eclipse the 25-touch marker on Saturday afternoon.
Lachlan Geleit
Richmond v Western Bulldogs
Taranto to have 25+ disposals
Tim Taranto has been impressive in his early few games for the Tigers.
Across three rounds he has averaged a tick under 30 disposals, amassing 32, 28 and 29 respectively.
In his five career outings against the Bulldogs while with GWS, Taranto averaged 27 touches.
Armed with all that info, we feel Taranto is primed to pick up at least 25 disposals against the Dogs at the MCG on Saturday evening.
Daniel and Dale to combine for 45+ disposals
In seven games against Richmond, Caleb Daniel averages 27.4 disposals which is his best return against any club.
While he is slightly down on his usual output in 2023, averaging 23.7 touches, he tends to be more prolific against the Tigers with 26, 34, 22, 36 and 29 in his last five.
Teammate Bailey Dale has enjoyed two big games against Richmond in his career, picking up 27 touches in 2021 and 31 last year.
He averages a tick over 23 possessions in 2023.
Daniel and Dale have the scope to combine for at least 45 disposals in Round 4.
Andrew Slevison
St Kilda v Gold Coast
Callum Wilkie to have 15 or more disposals
Arguably still the most underrated defender in the comp, Callum Wilkie will have 15 or more disposals on Saturday night.
Wilkie has collected 24, 17 and 19 disposals in the first three games of the year and against a young Gold Coast forward line, we're expecting him to get off the chain.
Given he's such a beautiful kick, the Saints love getting the ball in his hands plus the added advantage of taking some of the kick-ins.
Go on.
Ben King to kick two or more goals
Star forward Ben King looks to be finding some form so it'll be interesting to see how St Kilda's elite defence combats the great marking forward.
The last time King faced the Saints, he was nearly the match-winner, kicking three goals in a low scoring affair up in Queensland.
Under the roof on Saturday night, expect the young gun to recapture some of his best form and put at least two through the big sticks.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Sydney v Port Adelaide
Errol Gulden to have 20+ disposals
Errol Gulden has had a strong start to the 2023 season but wasn’t as prolific in last weekend’s loss to Melbourne.
After averaging 26 disposals across the season’s opening fortnight, Gulden was kept to just one goal and 15 touches against the Demons.
Back at his home ground, Gulden should get his hands on the football more and collect enough disposals to go pass the 20 mark on Sunday afternoon.
Todd Marshall to kick two or more goals
Todd Marshall has goaled in his last 19 games for the Power and should continue to do so in this game.
While the tall forward was quiet in the Showdown against Adelaide with just one goal and four disposals, he played well against the Swans in 2022 with four majors and 14 disposals.
After his form dipped last weekend, we’re expecting Marshall to return to form on a ground that should allow for deep inside 50 entries.
Lachlan Geleit
Essendon v GWS
Darcy Parish for 30 disposals
Darcy Parish is averaging 34 disposals per game so far in 2023 and is finding the ball for fun.
Couple this with GWS being a team that doesn’t currently deploy a tag - see Patrick Cripps’ performance last week - and you can be sure Parish will get plenty of the Sherrin in Round 4.
He had 35 in Round 3 against the Saints and flourishes under the roof at Marvel. Lock him in for at least 30 disposals.
Toby Greene bounces back with two or more goals
It’s tough to keep a champion down and Toby Greene is unlikely to have two poor games in a row.
He started the season in excellent form and will bounce back under the roof at Marvel against an Essendon team that doesn’t have a perfect matchup for him.
The Giants will be right in this one and Toby will be leading from the front inside 50, kicking at least two goals.
Nic Negrepontis
West Coast v Melbourne
Elliot Yeo 15+ touches
If West Coast are going to have any chance against the Dees on Sunday, Yeo is going to need to step up.
The Eagles have once again found themselves dealing with some horror injury luck, losing multiple key players in last week’s derby against the Dockers.
Yeo’s return looks like the only bright spot for West Coast this week, playing his first game since Round 16 last year.
While 15 disposals may seem conservative for the showings we’ve seen from Yeo, it has been a while since he has been at his best.
The two-time club champion played just 5 games in 2022, averaging exactly 15 touches as he dealt with injury.
With West Coast unbelievably short-handed, the home crowd will be desperately willing for an impactful Yeo return.
Melbourne win by 50+
This game has the potential to get unbelievably ugly.
The Demons have been in red-hot form to start the year, using their trademark frantic ball movement and high work rate to tear teams apart, with the sole exception of the loss to Brisbane.
Meanwhile West Coast are dealing with every selector’s nightmare, missing almost all of their top-end talent as they fall with injury.
While this clash has 100-point drubbing written all over it, we’ll stay conservative with a 50-point margin, just in case the Eagles try to work some magic at Optus Stadium.
Jack Makeham
Geelong v Hawthorn
Tom Hawkins to kick multiple goals
Geelong has been renowned for looking after teammates in recent years, and expect nothing different on Easter Monday.
Hawkins has been battling to start the season, but many overreacted after his performance against Gold Coast.
The 34-year-old is more than capable of kicking multiple majors against a team with a leaky defence, especially with a point to prove and his teammates set to help out.
Pencil him in for two goals.
Jack Scrimshaw for 20+ disposals, 4+ rebound 50s
The 24-year-old was managed to start the season but excelled against North Melbourne in his side’s first win of the year.
25 disposals, nine marks and four rebound 50s was a great start to the year. He plays a similar half-back role to Lachie Weller, who torched the Cats last week with 29 disposals.
Geelong’s small forwards haven’t been elite to start the year and if all stays the same, Scrimshaw – who enjoyed 24 touches and eight rebound 50s against the Cats last year – will be the beneficiary.
An elite talent looking to take another step forward in 2023, this could be Scrimshaw’s year to kick on.
Seb Mottram