It’s been a hot start to the season and with the Easter weekend of footy ahead of us, that doesn’t seem like it’ll slow down soon.
Three traditional clashes are set to dominate the prime time slots, with Brisbane hosting Collingwood on Thursday to kick off the round, North Melbourne and Carlton meeting on Good Friday and Geelong and Hawthorn facing off on Easter Monday.
Sandwiched in between those games we have other matchups with sides that are similarly placed, so fans could be set for a weekend of tight finishes.
Here’s who we think will win each of those games and why.
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Brisbane v Collingwood
Thursday - 7.20pm - Gabba
The Jekyll & Hyde Brisbane Lions return to the comforts of their den for a crunch primetime clash after an unsuccessful trip to Melbourne.
Chris Fagan’s Lions have mixed their form thus far in 2023, losing away from Brisbane in Rounds 1 and 3, while appearing world-beaters against Melbourne in Round 2.
It is that sequence of form which could determine the result against an unbeaten Collingwood.
‘If’ the ‘Gabba Lions’ show up - and it’s a big ‘if’ - they have the ability to beat the Pies at home for the fourth straight time.
Craig McRae’s Magpies found another way to win last weekend, holding Richmond at arm’s length in the wet when they probably should have won comfortably.
They have some personnel issues particularly in the ruck department with Darcy Cameron (knee) now out, joining Mason Cox (ribs) and Aiden Begg (back) on the sidelines.
That presents as somewhat of a problem as the Lions have Oscar McInerney to give his midfielders first use.
But the game is unlikely to be won or lost in the ruck. It will likely depend on Brisbane’s capacity to handle Collingwood’s system.
‘If’ (there’s that word again) they can stymy the way the Pies use the corridor, then they’re in with a fighting chance, especially if the under-fire forward line finds form.
Tip: Brisbane by 10 points.
Andrew Slevison
North Melbourne v Carlton
Friday - 4.20pm – Marvel Stadium
Carlton will be looking to build further momentum when they take on North Melbourne on Good Friday.
North has some selection headaches on their hands, with Ben McKay still missing through injury and Griffin Logue suspended.
This leaves Aidan Corr as the sole healthy key defender coming up against Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow, Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni.
The Roos found themselves in a very similar position last year and the Blues took full advantage, with McKay kicking 4.2 and Curnow kicking 3.4. They combined for 17 marks.
For North Melbourne to topple Carlton, they will need midfield dominance. Jy Simpkin and Luke Davies-Uniacke returning is a big help, while Cam Zurhaar is quietly putting together a strong season on-ball and pushing forward.
If they can control the stoppages and keep pressure on the Blues, they might be in with a shot. Carlton has struggled to curtail end-to-end ball movement this season and the Roos, under the roof at Marvel, will attempt to pierce their defensive grid.
However, Carlton’s midfield has been humming nicely this season and their backline has quietly flown under the radar, giving up scores of 58, 82 and 64. Only St Kilda and Richmond have conceded fewer points.
If North Melbourne can’t kick a winning score and keep pace with the Blues’ advantage up the other end of the ground, they won’t stand much of a chance.
Tip: Carlton by 28 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Adelaide v Fremantle
Saturday - 1.45pm – Adelaide Oval
After going 0-2 across the season’s opening fortnight, both the Crows and Dockers picked up their first wins of the year in Round 3.
While both sides are young, they have clear game styles and would both consider themselves finals hopefuls in 2023.
The last time these sides met was all of the way back in Round 1 of last year, with the Dockers prevailing by just one point thanks to some Heath Chapman heroics on the goal line at the Adelaide Oval.
Given that clash was so long ago, it’s hard to take any real takeaways from it so instead we’ll look at their practice match ahead of this season which saw Adelaide dominate at Victor George Kallis Oval.
While that was an unofficial clash, Izak Rankine proved too hot to handle for the Dockers and he’ll hope to continue his hot form after kicking four majors in last weekend’s Showdown win.
Even though the Dockers are the more accomplished team of the two, Adelaide’s exposed form this season shapes up better than their opponent’s and they’d hope to win this one at home if they’re to make a push for the eight this season.
Tip: Adelaide by 20 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Richmond v Western Bulldogs
Saturday - 4.35pm - MCG
The Tigers and Bulldogs are two sides that are still trying to find their groove, and a win for either side in Saturday's clash could go a long way in that process.
The Bulldogs are coming off their first win of the season, putting together a strong performance against the Lions to take a 14-point victory.
That match was by far the best the Dogs have looked in all aspects of the game in 2023, with their backline holding Brisbane to just 53 points, and their forwards finally finding some form.
Meanwhile, Richmond became the latest victims of Collingwood’s white-hot start to the year, falling to the Magpies in a scrappy wet-weather affair.
Expectations were high for this Tigers squad coming into the season, however after three rounds they’re yet to put together a truly complete performance, with their sole win over Adelaide looking shaky at stages.
Both clubs have had trouble with their efficiency going inside 50 to start the year, each sitting near the bottom of average points per game as a result.
Despite this, the Tigers certainly have the star power and track record to come out of the gates firing, so the Bulldogs’ backline looks set to have their hands full.
Richmond will receive a hefty boost heading into the matchup with the return of Dustin Martin and Jacob Hopper, however the Dogs certainly have the talent to match.
With both sides heading to the MCG desperate for a win, this is a clash that could ultimately go down to the wire.
Tip: Richmond by 8 points
Jack Makeham
St Kilda v Gold Coast
Saturday - 7.30pm – Marvel Stadium
Both St Kilda and Gold Coast head into this clash after terrific wins in Round 3.
The Saints continued their outstanding start to the year with a very impressive win against Essendon on a night that meant so much to the club.
With so many stars sidelined due to injury, Ross Lyon's side showed that a system based side can overcome personnel issues and still perform.
To say the Saints have the wood over the Suns would be underplaying it, they've beaten them in eight of their last nine clashes albeit most of them going down to the wire.
As for the Suns, they head to Melbourne having beaten last years premiers in Geelong.
On their day, Gold Coast are a very difficult team to play against given how fast they play and the slingshot style Stuart Dew loves.
Star forward Ben King looks to be finding some form so it'll be interesting to see how St Kilda's elite defence combats the great marking forward.
Given the game is at Marvel, we're tipping the Saints to continue their unbeaten ways in front of a packed out home crowd.
Tip: St Kilda by 17 points.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Sydney v Port Adelaide
Saturday - 7.30pm - SCG
With both clubs coming off disappointing Round 3 performances, expect a hot and contested game at the SCG on Saturday night.
While the Swans are rightly favourites, it’s the Power who have dominated this clash in recent years winning the last four meetings.
This stat may be skewed though given the sides last met in Sydney in 2016, and the Swans will hope their home ground advantage helps them turn the Power off.
For Port Adelaide, they’ll be desperate to put in a better defensive effort after giving up a combined 252 points in the last fortnight while Sydney will hope to return to their form in the opening fortnight.
On the smaller confines of the ground, you feel the game will be won and lost at the source and Sydney’s on-ball unit is simply in better form than Port Adelaide’s midfield group.
While there’s genuine pressure on coach Ken Hinkley and his Power side to perform, the Swans should take care of this one if they’re truly a contender again in 2023.
Tip: Sydney by 29 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Essendon v GWS
Sunday - 2.10pm – Marvel Stadium
Essendon will look to bounce back from a disappointing loss to St Kilda when they host GWS at Marvel Stadium on Sunday.
The Bombers defensive stocks may be boosted by the potential return of key defender Brandon Zerk-Thatcher. The young defender started the year in good form before he was struck down by an ankle injury in Round 2.
Despite last week's loss the Bombers have had a bright start to the year under new coach Brad Scott with midfield recruit Will Setterfield making the most of his time in the guts averaging 24.7 disposals, 6.3 tackles and 493 metres gained per match.
But with star key forward Peter Wright not expected to return from injury until the latter part of the season, Essendon will hope at least one of Harrison Jones or Sam Weideman will step up in his place. Unfortunately for the Bombers both Jones and Weideman are yet to fire a shot in 2023.
GWS will be looking to return to their Round 1 form after a scrappy loss to an inaccurate Carlton side on Saturday.
In news that will excite Giants fans, their number one pick from last year's draft Aaron Cadman may be primed for a debut after a three-goal performance against the Blues in the VFL last weekend.
The Giants have won the last three matches against the Bombers and seem to be playing an attacking, fast-paced style of football under new coach Adam Kingsley, but it might not be enough to steal the win from a Bombers side determined to stay in the eight.
Tip: Essendon by 22 points.
Marcus Beeck
West Coast v Melbourne
Sunday - 5.20pm – Optus Stadium
Sunday night’s clash against Melbourne couldn’t have come at a worse time for West Coast.
In circumstances reminiscent of last season, the Eagles enter the match plagued by injury, losing pivotal players such as Jeremy McGovern, Luke Shuey and Liam Ryan last round.
Meanwhile, the Demons are in red hot form, claiming a dominant victory over the Swans as they look to have adapted well to life without Max Gawn.
The 134 points Melbourne dished out to Sydney exemplified the potency of their attack, with the Demons currently averaging the highest score per contest in the entire AFL.
This doesn’t bode well for the West Coast’s defenders, as the Eagles currently concede the 5th most points per game so far this season.
With Melbourne’s vaunted midfield matching up against the incredibly depleted engine room of the Eagles, this is a clash that has the potential to get ugly in a hurry.
With the odds completely stacked against West Coast, it would be an impressive effort if they’re able to put up a fight.
Tip: Melbourne by 42 points
Jack Makeham
Geelong v Hawthorn
Monday - 3.20pm - MCG
Reigning premier Geelong enter this must-win clash with an unenviable 0-3 record against a Hawthorn team that opened its 2023 account last week.
Cats captain Patrick Dangerfield indicated that his players were down on confidence this week when attempting to explain the club’s winless beginning.
But a win does not seem too far away given they’ve gone down by 22, eight and 19 points, and been in each of their games so far. They will also likely welcome back Mitch Duncan which gives their midfield a different look.
The Hawks were much better against North Melbourne last week, controlling the ball with a massive 424 disposals and 140 marks. If Sam Mitchell’s side chooses to take that approach into Monday’s clash then they will have every chance of pulling off a second straight Easter Monday fixture.
Historically, you can throw form out the window when assessing a Geelong v Hawthorn clash at the MCG and that could be the case this time around.
The Cats are coming off a loss, the Hawks off a win, but you just get the feeling the tide will soon turn for Chris Scott’s dominant 2022 flag winners.
Tip: Geelong by 22 points.
Andrew Slevison