SEN’s Dwayne Russell believes we could see a 90-goal forward in 2023.
The last players to kick 90 or more goals were Lance Franklin and Brendan Fevola in 2008 – with the pair booting 102 and 99 respectively in the home and away season.
While Josh Kennedy kicked 80 in 2016, no other player has broken even that mark since 2010, but Russell believes we could see it happen in 2023 as scoring increases.
“To me, and I’m probably going too early with this, but I just like the way it’s trending,” Russell said on SEN Afternoons.
“I’m going to jump on the bandwagon and be seat 1A on this, then by all means, let me jump into seat 1A and you can ridicule me at the end of the season if it doesn’t happen.
“Someone might kick 90 goals this season, not 100, but they might at least threaten with a big number for the first time since Buddy’s 102 in 2008.
“We’ve had 60s and 70s in the last couple of years, Josh Kennedy won the Coleman with 80 in 2016.”
Russell believes increased speed on the ball is giving key forwards greater opportunities in front of the big sticks, with Nick Larkey, Toby Greene, Jeremy Cameron, Ben Brown and Charlie Curnow already averaging four or more goals a game this season.
“Think about this, the good teams are scoring more in 2023,” Russell said.
“We’ve had that confirmed out of the first two rounds.
“Inside 50 numbers for the good teams are up, faster ball movement means teams are getting the ball from defensive 50 to attacking 50 quicker than they have in a couple of decades. That’s a fact.
“They’re forcing defenders to go one-on-one, we’ve noticed this little trend … defenders are being forced more to defend one on one because the ball is getting in there quicker.
“The zone defence that’s been stifling scoring is starting to be eroded a little by this fast movement of the ball … that’s a trend in the right direction for the key forwards.
“Rather than being flooded in defence, you’re getting space and one versus one.”
On current pace, Larkey is on track for 115 majors and Greene, Cameron, Brown and Curnow are tracking for 92.
While Russell doesn’t expect the Kangaroo to break triple figures, he believes the best teams will continue to score heavily, giving one start forward the opportunity to threaten the 90 mark.
“Teams now know they’re going to have to kick 20 goals to beat Collingwood and the good teams in the finals,” Russell said.
“If you’re going to win the Grand Final, you’re going to need the capacity to kick 20 goals.
“Teams are going to train that, practice that and train that if they’re not already.
“I think 90 is on the agenda, the other reason it might be on the agenda is that we’ve got an extra game this year.
“Nick Larkey has got 10 goals from two games, he’s on track, he’s on track to kick 100+ but he won’t.
“Four goals a game for the home and away season will get you 92.
“I reckon someone might threaten 90, that’s exciting.”
Curnow won the Coleman Medal with 64 goals in 2022, while Harry McKay (58 goals) and Tom Hawkins (42 goals) won the award in 2021 and 2020 respectively.