There is no such thing as a certainty in footy.
Or is there?
We’ve had certainties for Thursday and Friday night footy, but with seven other games remaining in Round 1, we’ve taken a close look to come up with one certainty for each team for the remaining matches.
Take a look at our certainties for the rest of the weekend’s action.
North Melbourne v West Coast
Harry Sheezel to kick at least one goal
North Melbourne fans are excited to see how their top pick from the 2022 Draft goes in his first game on Saturday.
After impressing in a variety of roles in his first pre-season, Sheezel has been named at forward pocket to make his debut, a position he dominated in as an under 18.
Having kicked three goals against Richmond in an unofficial practice match and one against the Bulldogs in their official practice game, Sheezel has proven already he can hit the scoreboard against opposition defences.
Expect the young gun to bag his first goal against the Eagles.
Tim Kelly to have 20+ disposals
After a down year by his standards, Tim Kelly has the “fire in the belly” to get back to his best in 2023.
Having never averaged less than 20 disposals in any of his six AFL seasons to far, Kelly is certain to pass the 20-touch mark in his first hitout of this campaign.
The smooth-mover will hope to have a big say in proceedings, expect to see him near the top of the possession-getting tally.
Lachlan Geleit
Port Adelaide v Brisbane
Wines to have 20+ disposals, 4+ clearances
Without Travis Boak, expect Ollie Wines to step up for Port Adelaide.
In 12 career games against the Lions he averages 26.25 disposals including hauls of 29, 37 and 32 in three of his last four.
20 touches should be light work for the Brownlow Medallist.
Wines also loves a clearance, finishing last year with 29 in his last five outings at an average of 5.8.
Against a strong Lions midfield group he should gain at least four clearances on Saturday.
Cameron to kick 2+ goals
Charlie Cameron should get a few looks at it on Saturday, crumbing the feet of a dangerous Brisbane forward line.
His goals/behinds sequence against the Power since he joined the Lions in 2018 has gone: 3.0 / 1.3 / 4.2 / 1.1 / 4.4 / 1.0 - so he is due another multiple haul.
He kicked two or more goals in seven of his last 11 outings in 2022 and should be primed to finish with at least two majors in Round 1.
Andrew Slevison
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Melbourne to win the hit-out count
You would hope so!
Brodie Grundy joins Max Gawn at the Demons this year, giving them the most formidable batting combination in the league.
While Tim English has improved in leaps and bounds in the last 12 months, he will still be outgunned in the ruck and generally struggles against Gawn.
Rory Lobb is a significant upgrade in terms of back-up ruck duties for the Dogs, but there’s no way they win the hit-out count on Saturday night.
Tom Liberatore for 5 clearances
Tom Liberatore is riding a 10-game streak of at least five clearances in a game and will be firing on all cylinders for Round 1’s clash with Melbourne’s elite on-ball group.
He only dropped below five clearances four times in 2022 and will continue his streak into 2023.
Former Bulldog and current Demon Lachie Hunter said if he could tag any Dogs midfielder, he would pick Liberatore, highlighting how he is rated internally.
Nic Negrepontis
Gold Coast v Sydney
Ben King 2+ goals
Ben King will be looking to make a statement in his return game.
The last time we saw the star forward was in 2021, missing all of last season after suffering an ACL tear.
Now fully healthy, King will be looking to pick up right where he left off, kicking 47 goals in his last complete season.
While the Suns have two other skilled key forwards in Mabior Chol and Levi Casboult, King will slot straight back into that number 1 role and see plenty of opportunities.
Expect him to hit the scoreboard plenty against Sydney.
Errol Gulden 20+ disposals and a goal
Errol Gulden is poised for a star-making year.
The 20-year-old made headlines with his pre-season performance against the Blues, racking up 45 touches and booting three goals.
While the young gun is unlikely to replicate such an impressive performance against the Suns, a strong showing is the expectation.
Gulden averaged 19.2 disposals and 0.7 goals across 25 games in 2023.
Expect him to boost those stats this season, starting with a stellar performance against Gold Coast.
Jack Makeham
GWS v Adelaide
Tom Green to have 25+ disposals
GWS midfielder Tom Green is set to earn increased on-ball opportunities in 2023.
Combining his continual improvement and the departure of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, Green is expected to be a permanent inside midfielder and should see his statistics rise as a by-product of that.
Having passed the 25-disposal barrier on 10 occasions in 2022, expect Green to tally that number of touches more often than not this campaign.
It should start this Sunday against the Crows.
Rankine and Rachele to combine for 3 or more goals
Adelaide fans are excited to see how boom recruit Izak Rankine fares in his first game for the club.
After a blistering pre-season, Rankine is set to be one of Adelaide’s primary options inside 50 and the 22-year-old will be desperate to get off to a good start as a Crow.
Alongside running mate and fellow dangerous small forward Josh Rachele, the duo are set to be a huge headache for opposition defences.
It’ll be hard for any opposition to stop both of them, so expect the pair to combine for at least three goals in this one.
Lachlan Geleit
Hawthorn v Essendon
Karl Amon 20+ disposals
The first showing for Karl Amon in new colours looks set to be a strong one.
Coming over from Port Adelaide during the off-season, Amon is one of the most experienced players of a very young Hawthorn unit.
While much of the Hawks consists of potential, the competition knows what to expect from Amon, having averaged over 15 touches every year since 2017.
Coming off some of the best seasons of his career, the new recruit looks set to pick up right where he left off.
Darcy Parish 25+ disposals
It’s tough to know what Essendon will look like in 2023.
With a new coach and new captain now at the helm, the Bombers could look very different to the high-octane squad we saw last season.
However, the one thing that can always be counted on is Darcy Parish getting plenty of the footy.
The ball magnet is coming off his second straight year of averaging 30 touches a game, getting involved in almost every passage of play for the Dons.
Taking on an inexperienced Hawks midfield, it’s easy to predict that Parish will secure at least 25 disposals.
Jack Makeham
St Kilda v Fremantle
Saints struggle to hit the scoreboard
St Kilda couldn’t have had a worse run of injury luck heading into Round 1.
In particular, their forward line has been ravaged, with their two star forwards Max King and Tim Membrey missing the opening clash.
This leaves the Saints’ attack to be headlined by Zaine Cordy and pre-season pick-up Anthony Caminiti, a steep drop from the combined four goals King & Membrey averaged per game last year.
When considering these injuries with Ross Lyon’s gritty game style and a matchup against Fremantle’s stout defense, you have a recipe for low digits on the scoreboard.
While the Saints are capable of securing a win in their opening clash, it will certainly not come in a high-scoring affair.
Nat Fyfe kicks at least one goal
If the pre-season form can carry over, Nat Fyfe is set to have a revelatory season as a primary forward.
Fyfe looked dominant in his new role throughout the Dockers’ two scratch matches, kicking 3 goals in each contest.
He was targeted heavily in those games and should see plenty more opportunities against St Kilda.
While Ross Lyon will certainly have these Saints playing harder on the defensive side of the ball, expect Fyfe to snag at least on major in their season opener.
Jack Makeham