The day racing purists love most during the Flemington Carnival.
It is Derby Day at headquarters for 2022 and we are expecting at least a heavy track to begin proceedings, which should then improve as the day goes on.
Not sure if hard fence is the ideal place to be at Flemington when the track is wet, so three-wide running line with cover is the area to potentially target.
Get an inkling the straight races will be run up the middle, so, horses with good racing manners and middle barriers will be favoured.
Flemington
Race 4 – Wakeful Stakes
2. Pavitra – Seemed to really overdo it in front when bolting away in the Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield only to be run down by two very smart fillies (Renaissance Woman & Foxy Cleopatra). Blinkers come off to settle her down and she looks the sole leader in this race with a good base of fitness under her belt.
3. So Dazzling – Talk about ‘set for the race.’ This John Sargent-trainer filly was clearly given a sighter around Newcastle last start in what was a pipe-opener for this race. Huge jockey change with Damien Oliver being booked and she has had the track experience when winning the Oaks Trial (1800 metres) just over a month ago.
Race 6 – Coolmore Stud Stakes
5. Nettuno – The market has completely missed him here and it is hard to see why given how competitive he has been in some pretty handy three-year-old races up in Sydney. Forget about his last run when he was restrained, out wide and trying to run on at Randwick in the Roman Consul when you had to be hard fence. Has some solid SPs and looks well over the odds.
8. Economics – Brings completely different form and talent into this race. Market is really respecting him despite coming off a Scone run. He was $1.80 favourite for the Blue Sapphire before being scratched and he looks a horse who has heaps of progression to come. Drawn to come across and settle on the speed with some cover from Coolangatta.
Race 8 – Empire Rose Stakes
14. La Crique – Have to mention this boom horse coming over from New Zealand. She clearly has to be taken into consideration given how brilliant she has been in winning her Group races across the Tasman. However, the $2.25 is rock-bottom odds and not worth a play. Have her marked around about the $4.80 quote and she is a clear winning hope, but not at the current price.
9. Belle Plasir – She is going super at the moment for the McEvoy stable. Her base of fitness should have her cherry ripe for a fourth-up run settling on the speed from a soft gate.
16. She’s Licketysplit – Three-year-old fillies have had a particularly good record in this race of late and she looks no exception to the rule. Plummets down to the 49kgs off a dogged effort in the Thousand Guineas and will appreciate getting back to the scene of her nice win the in Edward Manifold back on October 1.
(Results after Cox Plate Day – will account for Derby Day in Derby Day Recap as of Monday)
State of Play
Units Played: 14 units
Units Returned: 15.98 units
Profit: 1.98 units
Profit on Turnover: 14.14%
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