Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for Friday night’s Preliminary Final between Geelong and Brisbane:
Tom Hawkins to kick 2+ goals
Geelong forward Tom Hawkins was kept quiet in the Cats’ first final with just one goal against Collingwood, but don’t expect that to happen again.
Last time out against Brisbane, the All-Australian captain kicked five goals, had 14 disposals and had 11 score involvements in a dominant outing.
If Hawkins has anywhere near that kind of influence in this game, Geelong will expect to get the job done.
Averaging 2.6 goals a game this year, Hawkins will be called on to help the Cats kick a winning score.
Tom Stewart to pick up 20+ disposals
Geelong defender Tom Stewart is as consistent as they come and will be ready to put in another big finals performance on Friday.
From 18 games this season, Stewart has only picked up less than 20 disposals on four occasions.
The star backman had 22 disposals and seven marks against Collingwood in the Qualifying Final and you’d expect him to achieve similar numbers against the Lions.
Given that he averages 24.1 disposals a game, it’d be out of the ordinary for him not to reach the 20-touch marker.
Lachlan Geleit
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McCluggage to record 25+ possessions and 3+ clearances
Hugh McCluggage has been one of Brisbane’s best in the Lions’ three games at the MCG this year.
In losses to both Melbourne and Richmond, McCluggage gathered a combined 53 touches, 11 marks, 9 clearances and 971 metres gained, while he was also influential against the Demons in last week’s Semi-Final win.
With the Cats declaring their intentions to keep Lachie Neale on the chain, his teammate McCluggage could be the big beneficiary. The Cats midfielders don’t win big numbers meaning McCluggage will have every opportunity to perform on the ‘G once again.
McCluggage also averages 25.0 disposals and 3.3 clearances a game through 23 games this year.
Cameron, Bailey, McCarthy and Rayner to combine for 6+ goals
The expected wet conditions will worry Chris Fagan’s tall stocks, but Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey, Lincoln McCarthy and Cameron Rayner should lap it up.
The small quartet combined for five goals last week against Melbourne with McCarthy and Rayner going goalless, but with the ball set to spend more time on the deck on Friday, expect at least six goals from the four livewires.
Not all may fire, but the attacking nature of the Lions should see at least one of them kick a bag, while a number of others should chime in.
While the Cats are strong aerially, the groud ball in their defensive 50 has been their achilles heel for a number of years.
Rayner averages the least of the four with one goal a game throughout 2022, while Cameron has booted 2.8 goals on average to lead the small forwards.
Seb Mottram