Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for Friday night’s Semi-Final between Melbourne and Brisbane:
Max Gawn 20+ disposals and 30+ hitouts
Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn will be desperate to make a big statement in Friday’s big game.
While he performed admirably against Sydney, he’d be disappointed to split the points with Tom Hickey whose competitiveness played a big hand in the Swans getting over the line.
Up against a second-choice ruckman in Darcy Fort, Gawn will be wanting to make his presence felt and have a significant say in proceedings.
The big man averages 19.1 disposals and 26.7 hitouts per game this season, expect him to eclipse those numbers in this one.
Bayley Fritsch 2+ goals
Bayley Fritsch will hit the scoreboard in this game, that’s an absolute given considering he last went goalless in Round 21 of last season.
Saying he’ll simply kick at least one goal is too obvious though, so we’re backing Fritsch to slot at least two.
From 23 games this season, Fritsch has been a multiple goalkicker in 16 of them, and don’t expect things to change this time around given he kicked four against the Lions in their most recent matchup in Round 23.
He’ll be the Demons’ go-to man up forward and Fritsch should help his side table a competitive score.
Lachlan Geleit
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Lachie Neale 25+ disposals
At this rate, Brisbane’s superstar midfielder getting plenty of the football is the most certain thing in the competition.
Neale is coming off an all-time performance against Richmond, racking up 39 possessions and an immense 15 clearances.
Whilst he may not repeat the excellence of that game tonight, it’s clear that he’s going to have a massive impact in the contest.
When Brisbane last took on Melbourne in Round 23, Neale did everything he could to keep his side afloat, however, his 29 disposals couldn’t stop the rampaging Demons from coming away with the win.
If the Lions want to secure a Preliminary Final berth, they need Neale to do what he does best.
Cam Rayner and Charlie Cameron combine for 3+ goals
Brisbane’s forward mix will need contributions from everyone against the Demons.
With the hero of last week’s win Joe Daniher missing the contest due to personal reasons, the eyes will be on the rest of the Lions to get the job done.
Cameron is in the midst of one of the best years of his career, and his three-goal haul last week was instrumental in getting across the line against the Tigers.
On the other hand, Rayner missed the Elimination Final due to suspension and will be looking to make up for lost time with a strong showing.
Melbourne’s defence is elite at neutralising key forwards such as Eric Hipwood, however, the burst and penetration of players like Rayner and Cameron have proved to be a problem for the reigning premiers.
Expect the duo to be very lively.
Jack Makeham