Come the end of the season, we may just look back at Round 14 as a weekend that shaped the top eight.
Richmond versus Carlton is a classic eight-point game that could have huge ramifications either way, while Geelong has a chance to boost their percentage against West Coast.
St Kilda has a must-win clash with Essendon given how tight the bottom-half of the top eight is and the likes of Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs have to simply keep winning to keep their top eight hopes alive.
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Richmond v Carlton
Thursday – 7:20pm – MCG
A mouth-watering clash awaits footy fans as rivals and finals hopefuls Richmond and Carlton do battle on the MCG.
Looking back to their last meeting which came in Round 1, the Blues were able to run over the top of a Tigers side that had their chances to assert their dominance earlier in the game.
With a see-sawing contest to go off just a few months ago, you’d expect this clash to also be a tight affair.
In that fixture, Richmond talls Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch were kept to just three goals combined, but none of the Carlton tall defenders that they faced in Jacob Weitering, Oscar McDonald and Mitch McGovern will be there this time around.
While the Blues sit fourth with a 9-3 record and Richmond outside the eight at 7-5, it’s the Tigers who enter as slight favourites on the back of their Round 13 win over Port Adelaide.
Although Carlton would expect to get the upper hand on-ball, the aerial discrepancy could be what decides this clash, particularly in Richmond’s forward 50.
For the Blues to get the job done, they’ll need Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow to at the very least equal the impact of Riewoldt and Lynch, and that looms a tough task with a weakened Carlton defence set to be their direct match-ups.
It’ll be a close one, but this could be the week that Carlton’s injury woes catch up with them.
Tip: Richmond by 10 points.
Lachlan Geleit
St Kilda v Essendon
Friday – 7:50pm – Marvel Stadium
Essendon will feature in another Friday night clash against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium.
With both sides losing their Round 13 clashes, they’ll be looking to put their best foot forward under the limelight.
Albeit competitive, the Saints were outclassed by Brisbane last week – putting them right back amongst the pack that are competing for the top eight.
Despite the loss, St Kilda head into this clash as the resounding favourites – and rightfully so.
Paddy Ryder and Rowan Marshall are arguably St Kilda’s most important players, their ruck dominance has been instrumental in the Saints’ strong start to the year.
Sam Draper and Andrew Phillips will have to be at the top of their game to curve the influence of the duo.
St Kilda will be wary of what shapes as a dangerous game, with Brett Ratten’s side losing against the ‘Dons by 75 points last year.
For the Bombers, their two wins in 2022 have come off the back of pace with the ball in hand and an ability to be daring out of defence, areas of their game that have let them down in recent weeks.
Peter Wright and Jake Stringer are due for a big game, Stringer copped a bake from coach Ben Rutten after their Round 13 loss to the Blues, the match winner will need to be at his best for the Bombers to win.
It’s simply too hard to find many reasons to pick Essendon at the moment and that remains true here, particularly with their final hopes over.
Currently occupying sixth spot on the ladder with an 8-4 record, St Kilda’s form this year should see them be too strong for the Bombers.
Tip: St Kilda by 29 points.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Port Adelaide v Sydney
Saturday – 1:45pm – Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide’s finals hopes are hanging in the balance.
The Power dropped to 5-7 after losing to Richmond by 12 points last week, meaning they are now two games outside the top eight.
Another loss would be a big blow to their finals chances.
Port hosts Sydney (8-4) who are coming off the bye and significant back-to-back wins over Richmond and Melbourne.
Sydney is one of four teams on eight wins heading into Round 14.
A win would move them to within touching distance of the top four, while a loss would see them fall back in the pack.
The Swans’ recent record against the Power makes for grim reading.
They have lost their last five games and haven’t beaten Port at Adelaide Oval since Round 2 2015.
It’s a massive game for both clubs with big finals implications.
Port Adelaide’s home form has improved since early season defeats to Hawthorn and Melbourne, but the Swans are playing the better footy.
Tip: Sydney by 11 points.
Alex Zaia
West Coast v Geelong
Saturday – 4:35pm – Optus Stadium
West Cost hosts Geelong at Optus Stadium on Saturday following a bye for both sides last weekend.
Adam Simpson would have been somewhat buoyed by the fight his Eagles showed when they last stepped out against Adelaide in Round 12, eventually going down by 31 points.
In their last outing, Chris Scott’s Cats shook off the Western Bulldogs by 13 points which had them back in the top four, only to relinquish that position having not played in Round 13.
With spots in the four at a premium, percentage will be key and there’s no doubt the Cats will be eager to produce a booster similar to what they received for a 97-point demolition job of the Eagles at home in Round 6 last year.
The Cats have an average winning margin of 36.5 this season, saluting by 35 points or more in five of their eight wins, blowing away opposition in the bottom half of the standings.
West Coast, who owns a 62.3-point averaging losing margin in 2022, have lost eight on the trot, while the Cats have won three in a row, with those streaks likely to extend to nine and four respectively.
The team who has played at home has won the last nine of these encounters, but that trend looks set to be broken with Geelong heavily favoured to win and to do so comfortably.
Tip: Geelong by 45 points.
Andrew Slevison
GWS v Western Bulldogs
Saturday – 7:25pm – Giants Stadium
The Western Bulldogs’ path to finals has become muddied. Last year’s runners up sit 10th on the ladder and four points plus percentage out of the eight.
Their fixture is as difficult as it gets to make the finals from here, playing Brisbane, Sydney, St Kilda, Melbourne, Geelong and Fremantle in the run home.
Given the above, they simply cannot lose to GWS this weekend, but Bulldogs/Giants games are never so simple.
One of the game’s most heated rivalries, the Giants will be doing everything they can to ruin the Dogs’ run to September – and they play each other twice.
The rivalry stems back to the 2016 Preliminary Final, where the Bulldogs stunned the Giants en route to their premiership.
The Dogs have won the last two encounters, including a smashing at Manuka Oval last season.
GWS has some momentum coming off a big win over North Melbourne, they have the home ground advantage and the motivation to put a first nail in the coffin of the Western Bulldogs’ season.
Toby Greene kicked four goals in the matchup last year and Jesse Hogan will provide a headache given the Dogs’ issues with key forwards.
Still, expect the Bulldogs to rise to the occasion and get the job done.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 10 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Gold Coast v Adelaide
Sunday – 3:20pm – Metricon Stadium
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Coming off byes last week, both Gold Coast and Adelaide have points to prove when they meet at Metricon Stadium in Sunday’s standalone game.
The Suns are genuine finals contenders and have claimed several scalps that have them just a game outside the eight. However, Stuart Dew will know these are the games that his side has to win if it is to feature in its first September action.
Of the 10 games left in their season, the Suns will need to win at least six to feature in the finals, and this should be one of them.
They’re playing a swift brand of football based on a dominant, consistent midfield and high effort across all lines. From what we’ve seen, that’s more than can be said for the Crows, who have fluctuated with their effort levels at times this season.
They snapped a five-game losing streak when beating West Coast in round 12, but Matthew Nicks will be disappointed by the drop-off in the second half when they kicked just four goals and gave the Eagles a sniff.
Darcy Fogarty will have to continue his recent run of form to stretch an undersized Gold Coast backline and the Crows will have to match it with the Suns’ strong midfield to be any chance of causing an upset.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 23 points
Seb Mottram