There is no such thing as a certainty in footy.
Or is there?
With seven matches remaining in Round 5, we have taken a close look at each of the contests and come up with one certainty for each club involved.
Take a look at our certainties for the remainder of the weekend’s action.
SUBSCRIBE TO THE AFL RECORD AND GET IT DELIVERED TO YOUR HOUSE EVERY WEEK.
St Kilda v Gold Coast
Witts to have the most hit-outs on the ground
Witts has had a terrific start to 2022 and he looks like a potential headache for St Kilda this Saturday.
With Saints ruckman Paddy Ryder missing this clash due to suspension, Rowan Marshall will be their primary ruck which is far from ideal given he’s not a dominant ruck.
Witts’ dominance was on show last week against Carlton’s second ruck, Tom De Koning, almost tripling his hit-out output (42-15), so expect him to have a similar output on the weekend.
Membrey to kick 2 or more goals
St Kilda forward Tim Membrey has been instrumental this year kicking two or more goals in three of the four games this year.
Membrey has kicked seven goals in the last two weeks, including his four-goal haul in last weekend’s dominant win over the Hawks, this dominance sees him sitting seventh on the Coleman medal standings.
If St Kilda can win the midfield battle, the underrated spearhead will get plenty of opportunities to hit the scoreboard.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Adelaide v Richmond
Laird and Keays to gather 50+ combined touches and 10+ clearances
Rory Laird and Ben Keays have started well together in 2022.
After Laird missed the opening two rounds, the pair have combined for 121 disposals and 31 clearances in the last two weeks, at an average of 60.5 and 15.5.
Against a Richmond midfield that doesn’t win a huge amount of contested ball, Laird and Keays are expected to rack up the stats once again.
Banking on them to combine for at least 50 disposals and given their ability at the stoppage, they should also finish with 10 or more clearances as a duo.
Bolton to collect 15+ disposals and kick at least one goal
Shai Bolton has been one of Richmond’s very best in the opening four rounds and looks in the mood to take that form into the clash with the Crows.
In his last six outings (including two last season), Bolton has kicked 14 goals and picked up 98 disposals at averages of 2.3 and 16.3 respectively.
This year, his possessions/goals tallies have read 16 and 3 (Round 1), 17 and 2 (Round 2), 14 and 3 (Round 3) and 20 and 2 (Round 4).
Historically he has only played two games against the Crows, one of which was back in 2018 (his eighth game overall), before finding it 23 times and kicking a goal in Round 11 last season.
Bolton to pick up 15 touches and kick at least a goal should occur in Saturday’s meeting.
Andrew Slevison
Melbourne v GWS
Gawn to win over 25 hit-outs
Melbourne captain Max Gawn could have a field day against GWS this weekend.
The Giants will be without No.1 ruckman Braydon Preuss for Saturday’s match, meaning the inexperienced Matthew Flynn will be tasked with competing against Gawn and his partner in crime Luke Jackson.
Gawn, widely regarded as the best ruckman in the competition, takes strong form into Saturday night’s match, delivering a best-on-ground performance in last week’s win over Port Adelaide.
The Demons premiership skipper is averaging 25.5 hit-outs, a tick under 20 disposals, 5.8 marks, 5.2 clearances and four inside 50s per game so far in 2022.
Taranto and Green to combine for at least 50 disposals
Tim Taranto and Tom Green have led the way for the Giants amid their slow start to the year.
The midfield bulls lead the club for disposals, clearances and contested possessions and will hold the key to them causing an upset over the reigning premiers.
Taranto is averaging 30.8 disposals and 4.8 clearances per game, while young gun Green has also been prolific, averaging a tick under 28 touches and 6.8 clearances.
It’ll be a hotly contested midfield battle as the gun Giants go up against Melbourne stars Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver.
Alex Zaia
Carlton v Port Adelaide
Boak for 30+ disposals
With Ollie Wines out of the team, there is nothing surer than Travis Boak finding his fair share of the footy on Sunday afternoon.
Boak leads the AFL for disposals per game so far in 2022 at 33.5 and will now have to carry an even heavier load against a Carlton midfield missing Patrick Cripps.
The Power veteran has averaged 27.8 disposals per game against Carlton in his last four meetings – which includes 18 disposals against them in 2020.
He is a lock to rack up at least 30 against the Blues.
McKay kicks three goals
Port Adelaide has had their issues stopping key forwards so far this season.
They gave up 4.3 to Joe Daniher, 5.0 to Mitch Lewis and 4.0 to Lachlan Gollant and Elliott Himmelberg – the Dees used their key forwards more as decoys in a low scoring affair.
Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow have fired consistently since Round 1 and the Power don’t have great matchup for the former.
Expect the Blues to play through McKay and expect him to hit the scoreboard.
Nic Negrepontis
Essendon v Fremantle
Parish to rack up 25+ touches again
The Essendon no.3 is back to some of his best form and not a moment too soon considering Zach Merrett’s extended injury absence.
The Bombers face another must-win game against the in-form Dockers and it’s almost certain that Darcy Parish will play well once again after his 38-disposal effort against Adelaide last weekend.
Ben Rutten has been forced to spin the magnets to cover several injury issues in the early part of the season, but in Parish they have a bankable midfield option who should rack up the touches again this weekend.
Taberner to kick at least two goals
Matt Taberner loves playing against Essendon and is well placed to play yet another pivotal role for his side on Sunday afternoon.
The 28-year-old has kicked 18 career majors against the Bomber, making this weekend’s opponents one of his favourite sides to play against.
Essendon’s back six remains brittle and if Fremantle’s midfielders can win enough ball in the middle, Taberner should get plenty of looks at goal.
Laurence Rosen
Hawthorn v Geelong
Geelong to score at least 85 points
Chris Scott promised Cats fans more of an attacking flair in 2022, and so far he’s sticking to his word. Coming into Round 5, Geelong was ranked the third offensive team in terms of points scored.
They’ve kicked big scores against Essendon and Collingwood, and coming up against another team not expected to be a serious contender, the Cats will smell blood in the water.
Meanwhile, Hawthorn was smashed on the counter-attack last week when conceding 142 points to St Kilda.
The Cats play a similar contested brand and will hope to beat up on Hawthorn, who will struggle to keep Geelong under 85 points if they continue the same brand of football they’ve displayed under Sam Mitchell.
Jiath to get at least 20 possessions
With the footy likely to spend plenty of time in the Cats' forward line, expect Changkuoth Jiath to showcase his trademark dare and gather plenty of the footy.
He can be hot and cold, but when he’s on the 22-year-old showcases some strong abilities to gather the footy.
The Cats' small forwards aren’t the strength on their list, and not many will have the strength to bring down Jiath.
Expect him to be able to stand up in plenty of tackles, while he’ll also exhibit his trademark run and dare to reach 20 possessions on Easter Monday, a mark he’s reached three times already this season.
Seb Mottram