Labelling something a ‘certainty’ in any sport is fraught with danger.
But we’ll attempt to find some anyway.
Here is what we consider certainties for the Port Adelaide v Melbourne clash:
Ollie Wines to have 25+ disposals
Last year’s Brownlow medallist Ollie Wines hasn’t slowed down in 2022, with the on-baller averaging nearly 32 touches a game in the season’s opening three weeks.
He only dipped below the 25-disposal mark once in 2021, and don’t expect it to happen again versus a Melbourne side that will back in their troops to get the job done without a tag.
Wines has collected 33, 25 and 29 disposals in his last three games against the Dees, and he should be up around that 30+ mark again on Thursday.
Todd Marshall to kick a goal
Up forward, Todd Marshall isn’t the proven product yet but his bag of five goals in the Showdown against Adelaide should give him confidence coming into this clash.
While he’ll be manned up against one of Steven May or Jake Lever, the Dees have let opposition key forwards kick goals in 2022 - with Aaron Naughton (four goals), Levi Casboult (two goals) and Peter Wright (four goals) having strong games against the reigning premiers in the first three rounds.
Don’t expect Marshall to dominate this game, but the Power should go to him enough to at least get his name on the scoreboard – particularly with Charlie Dixon out.
Lachlan Geleit
Melbourne to win
Melbourne is the best team in the competition and they should be too strong for a Port Adelaide line-up that has been very poor this season.
The reigning premiers will welcome back All-Australian defender Jake Lever to their side, strengthening up an already strong line-up.
Port lack genuine goal kickers and against Melbourne’s brilliant defence, they will struggle to kick a big enough score that will even allow them to be in a position to claim their first win in 2022.
Despite the Power having a strong record against the Dees (3-1), the style of football they are producing will not fly against this faultless Demons side.
Clayton Oliver to have 30+ disposals
Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver was already one of the AFL’s most prolific ball winners and his 2022 season has seen him pick up where he left off last year.
The two-time All-Australian ranks first in total disposals this year and has had 30 or more disposals in all three games this year, he should eclipse that mark again.
Last time out against the Power he racked up 31 disposals, he’ll get similar leather poisoning again against a midfield that isn’t very defensive.
Expecting Willem Drew to run with Christian Petracca if Ken Hinkley opts for a tag, allowing Oliver to do as a pleases.
Hugh Fitzpatrick