The 2022 AFL season kicks off on Wednesday night with reigning premiers Melbourne hosting last year’s runners-up Western Bulldogs at the MCG.
The first round of a new season generally throws up some surprise results and as is always the case, there are nine intriguing fixtures to dissect.
See who we think will win and why below.
All times AEDT
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
Wednesday - 7:10pm - MCG
Both teams head into this clash having both had near-faultless pre-seasons which bodes well for this round one affair.
If you like history and look back at their last six battles, you can’t separate them (3-3) and despite the Dees winning the flag by 74 points, it wasn’t that one-sided.
Luke Beveridge had a near full list to pick from on Wednesday night, Ed Richards and Laitham Vandermeer being the two changes from the Grand Final side, with Easton Wood (retired) and defender Taylor Duryea being left out.
Forward Aaron Naughton is arguably the Dogs' most important player and with Josh Bruce not playing, the pressure falls on his shoulders, which is a big ask, but he is a special talent.
If the Dogs get on top in the midfield and are able to curb the inevitable Melbourne surge, they’ll win this clash.
On the personnel front for the Dees, Simon Goodwin has made three changes to his premiership side, losing defenders Trent Rivers, Michael Hibberd and Harrison Petty to injury.
Melbourne are a class outfit and if the trio of Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca fire, look out.
The opening round generally provides some headaches in terms of tipping, and this match is definitely one of those given the evenness all over the ground.
Tip: Bulldogs by 10 points.
Hugh Fitzpatrick
Carlton v Richmond
Thursday - 7:25pm - MCG
Can a new coach bring a change in fortune for Carlton?
With Michael Voss now at the helm, the Blues will be out to break a long-running Round 1 hoodoo against Richmond at the MCG on Thursday night.
Carlton have not beaten the Tigers in Round 1 since 2012 and have not triumphed over their Victorian rivals since the 2013 Elimination Final.
Beating Richmond would give Voss’ side a huge boost in their quest to break a nine-year finals drought, following an off-season of significant change – both on and off the field.
The Tigers head into the new season with a point to prove after missing the finals for the first time since 2016 last year with injuries to key players – including superstar Dustin Martin – and poor form resulting in a forgettable campaign for Damien Hardwick’s side.
After winning three premierships in four years, Richmond’s hunger for further success has been called into question due to last season’s struggles.
A Round 1 victory would be the ideal start for Hardwick’s charges as they look to re-establish their flag credentials.
Martin loves playing against the Blues and looms large once again.
The Brownlow Medallist and three-time Norm Smith Medallist was best on ground in the corresponding fixture last year, collecting 31 disposals and booting two goals.
The Tigers to get home in a tight one.
Tip: Richmond by eight points.
Alex Zaia
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St Kilda v Collingwood
Friday - 7:50pm - Marvel Stadium
St Kilda takes on Collingwood in the first game of the season at Marvel Stadium in what promises to be one of the most anticipated games of the opening round.
The fresh campaign marks a bold new era at the Pies, with Craig McRae’s first official game to take place on the same night Nick Daicos makes his long-awaited debut for the club.
Both sides missed the finals in 2021 and have plenty to prove, but it’s the Saints who come into the year with more riding on the fortunes of their season.
While not under extreme pressure at this stage, Brett Ratten will be hoping for a vastly improved season after underwhelming last year and will want to get their campaign off to the best possible start.
For two sides that many have missing the eight, the big Friday night stage looms in front of what’s anticipated to be a big crowd.
The Saints have been battered by injury during pre-season but should still win this one and have enough firepower up forward to overcome Collingwood.
Tip: St Kilda by 15 points.
Laurence Rosen
Geelong v Essendon
Saturday - 2:10pm - MCG
Geelong and the Bombers shapes up as the old versus the new on Saturday.
The Cats are coming off several seasons of dominant home and away performances and would once again expect to be around the mark in 2022, whereas the youngsters at Essendon unexpectedly surged the Bombers up the ladder last year to play finals footy.
Both teams have their advantages in this clash, meaning how it’s coached will be interesting.
The Bombers have a clear advantage on the ball, even without Mitch Duncan’s interrupted pre-season. With the number of midfielders they should be able to cycle through, expect them to have the fresher legs as the game wears on, while they also have the A-graders in Darcy Parish and Jake Stringer to match the Cats early.
However, Geelong looks to have more upside in terms of scoring potential. Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins might be Ben Rutten’s biggest issues on Saturday afternoon, while the Cats have quietly assembled a strong swarm of smalls at their feet.
At the other end of the ground, Peter Wright will have to shoulder the load as the primary forward, with fans not placing too much expectation on likely debutant Kane Baldwin’s shoulders.
In comparing the scoring options, it’s hard to back the Bombers, even if their midfield does get significantly on top.
Tip: Geelong by 17 points.
Seb Mottram
GWS Giants v Sydney
Saturday - 5:10pm - Accor Stadium
A reboot of last year’s second elimination final when the Giants made a wasteful Sydney outfit pay dearly in Tasmania.
To kick off 2022 they will meet at Accor Stadium (Homebush) for the first time since the 2016 qualifying final was held at the venue.
The Giants will be without new co-captain and talisman Toby Greene, who will leave a gaping hole in attack, plus ruckman Braydon Preuss and small forward Brent Daniels are also out, while there are doubts over Jesse Hogan’s fitness.
In the Swans camp, one of their attacking weapons in Tom Papley is sidelined with a hamstring injury and new joint skipper Callum Mills is battling an achilles issue, but could still play.
On paper, the Swans look slightly stronger and should continue the trend of the rotating result which has read: Giants, Swans, Giants, Swans, Giants across the last five meetings of which the ‘away’ team has won three on the trot.
Greene’s absence more than outweighs Papley’s, and with the rest of their stars up and running, the Swans should have enough quality to get the job done, but a result the other way would not surprise at all.
Tipping Sydney in a very tight one to exact a small amount revenge on last year’s finals loss and Lance Franklin to snag his 1000th midway through the final term.
Tip: Sydney by six points.
Andrew Slevison
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
Saturday - 8:10pm - Gabba
The 2022 season kicks off for both Brisbane and Port Adelaide at the Gabba on a Saturday night.
The Lions have been in dominant form against the Power in recent times, winning four in a row across the last three years with three of those coming at home. Brisbane has won the last three meetings by an average of 44.6 points, which bodes well for this round one affair.
Assessing the pre-season form of both clubs, it is the Lions who jump out. Chris Fagan’s side easily accounted for Adelaide in their first practice match before beating last season’s runners-up Western Bulldogs narrowly in the AAMI Community Series.
The Power were less impressive in their two official outings, losing to Gold Coast by 21 points prior to their eventual 37-point win over the Crows having trailed by half-time.
They go into this without their power forward in Charlie Dixon, who remains sidelined after pre-season ankle surgery, while Orazio Fantasia (knee) will be missing and crafty small Robbie Gray (hamstring awareness) has been doubtful.
On the personnel front for the Lions, Eric Hipwood’s absence laid over from last season as the major hole. Keidean Coleman (hamstring) will miss and captain Dayne Zorko was touch and go in the lead-up.
The opening round generally provides some headaches in terms of tipping, but the Lions at home appears a fairly safe option in their opener.
Tip: Lions by 15 points.
Andrew Slevison
Hawthorn v North Melbourne
Sunday - 1:10pm - MCG
Hawthorn ushered in a new era at the conclusion of last season with Sam Mitchell replacing Alastair Clarkson as senior coach.
Mitchell, who worked under Clarkson as an assistant, succeeded his former mentor one year earlier than initially planned with the club very much in transition.
The first-year coach has stamped his authority on Hawthorn’s playing group over the summer and will look to get his tenure off to a winning start.
Coming off a seven-win season in 2021, the Hawks will look to get more games into youngsters such as Will Day and Denver Grainger-Barras.
Hawthorn’s opponent North Melbourne finished bottom with four wins last year - the club’s first wooden spoon since 1972 – in David Noble’s first season in charge.
The Kangaroos did however improve as the year went on, showing a willingness to compete for larger portions of games, after losing their first four games by an average margin of 70 points.
Noble’s first win as Roos coach came against the Hawks by seven points on his birthday in Round 9 last year.
There’s an air of excitement at Arden Street following the arrival of No.1 pick Jason Horne-Francis, adding to the club’s crop of emerging young talents.
After the Hawks and Roos won just 11 games between them last year, an early victory would be a significant confidence booster for the two rebuilding clubs.
Hawthorn’s experience sways it in their favour.
Tip: Hawthorn by 12 points.
Alex Zaia
Adelaide v Fremantle
Sunday - 4:10pm - Adelaide Oval
Both Adelaide and Fremantle will be hoping to rise up the ladder in 2022 after finishing 15th and 11th respectively last season, with their Round 1 clash looming as key to getting ahead of the ledger this campaign.
While the Dockers haven’t played finals football since 2015, Justin Longmuir’s outfit has been one of the most-hyped of the off-season, with many predicting a top eight finish for the men in purple this season.
If they are truly about to reach that next level, they should take care of a Crows list that’s a few steps behind in their rebuild, even with the game at the Adelaide Oval.
The key difference between the two sides on paper is the midfield, with Fremantle’s quintet of Sean Darcy, Nat Fyfe, Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong and David Mundy looking far stronger than Adelaide’s on-ball unit, particularly with Rory Laird breaking his hand in the club’s final pre-season outing against the Power.
In saying that, Matthew Nicks began to get his side play his team-first, defensive oriented style of footy in the back end of 2021, and they won’t be easybeats for any side that travels to the Adelaide Oval.
Expect the Crows to put up a fight and halve much of the contest at home, but Fremantle’s class and depth should see them over the line across four quarters of football.
Tip: Fremantle by 25 points.
Lachlan Geleit
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sunday - 7:40pm - Optus Stadium
What originally looked like an easy win for West Coast at home has been flipped on its head by numerous injuries to key Eagles and a strong pre-season from the Suns.
West Coast looked dismal in their pre-season losses to Fremantle, while Gold Coast could hardly have been more impressive against Port Adelaide and Geelong.
Adam Simpson will be missing more than half a dozen of his best players when the Eagles stride onto Optus Stadium, but that’s not to say the Suns are fully fit either.
Ben King was a huge loss in the pre-season with an ACL injury, and it suddenly became difficult to see where the goals were going to come from. But 14 Suns had shots on goal during their practice match win over Geelong, including Jack Lukosius, who looked strong when swung forward.
Meanwhile, the Eagles improved slightly the second time around against the Dockers, but just 66 points aren’t going to cut it against most AFL sides, and it’s difficult to see them kicking significantly bigger scores missing the players they are.
The Suns always start the season well and will have more options up forward and through the middle, which should lead to a bigger score than the Eagles can manage.
However, there’s always the possibility of a Simpson coaching masterclass.
Tip: Gold Coast by 19 points.
Seb Mottram