AFL season performance markets are now available and we thought we would take a closer look at them and predict how teams will fare.
Making season-long predictions in 2022 is a tough task given we have no idea how COVID will impact the season, when players will be unavailable and how that will swing results.
Since we can’t even hazard a guess at that, we’ve chosen just to focus on assessing fixtures, list changes and general feel around the clubs.
We’ve used Sportsbet’s season win markets for this article.
See our team-by-team thoughts below:
Season Win Line: 7.5
At face value, 2022 does not seem like the year Adelaide makes a jump up the ladder. They won seven games in 2021, so if you’re taking the over you’re essentially saying they will be better than what we saw last season.
They’ve lost veterans like Daniel Talia, Tom Lynch and Jake Kelly, but add Jordan Dawson to go with Matt Crouch and Wayne Milera returning. Six to seven wins feels the most likely scenario.
Verdict: Under
Season Win Line: 14.5
Brisbane has won 15 and 14 (shorter season) games in the last two years. Can they do it again to cover this line?
They’ve had all summer to rejig their forward line, they have a strong home ground advantage and play Gold Coast twice.
This is a tough one, but we’ve got the Lions falling just short given how difficult it is to stay around the top of the ladder.
Verdict: Under
Season Win Line: 9.5
Good luck trying to predict anything going on at Princes Park this year. Carlton should be stronger with the confidence boost that comes from a fresh coaching perspective as well as the return of Charlie Curnow.
The Blues have one of the easier fixtures on paper this year as well. This line has ‘stay away’ written all over it, but if you think the Blues will be around the finals mark, go the over. If Carlton only wins nine games in 2022, it will certainly be considered a massive failure internally.
Verdict: Over
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Season Win Line: 7.5
Collingwood took a massive step backwards in 2021, resetting from scratch with a new coach and coming off finishing 17th.
They won six games and the question you have to ask yourself is can they win two more with Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe back in defence, Taylor Adams back in the midfield and the additions of Nick Daicos and Pat Lipinski?
They absolutely could, but they’re starting from scratch and it’s easy to see them struggling early.
Verdict: Under
Season Win Line: 11.5
Essendon played finals with 11 wins and caught a few by surprise in 2021. Will they improve again and entrench themselves in the eight? The question would be their forward line.
Cale Hooker carried a heavy load for them across the majority of the season, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti isn’t yet ready to play and Peter Wright had a career-best season. Their makeshift backline also held together remarkably well in 2021. They also have to play Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Richmond and Sydney twice.
Verdict: Under
Season Win Line: 9.5
Fremantle won 10 games last season despite being ravaged by injuries to key players.
Assuming the WA government plays nice and allows them their allotment of home games, the Dockers are certainly good enough to at least repeat last year’s performance with Nathan Fyfe, Matt Taberner and healthy key defenders back in the mix.
Freo will be pushing for finals this year and should clear double digit wins.
Verdict: Over
Season Win Line: 13.5
This one feels pretty straight forward. Geelong will win their games at the Cattery and more than enough elsewhere to tick off 14 wins.
They won 16 last season and will be stronger in 2022 with a fresh game plan and a fully fit Jeremy Cameron.
The Cats are rejuvenated and a fair bet to maintain their top four streak.
Verdict: Over
Season Win Line: 5.5
Everyone is down on the Suns following Ben King’s torn ACL and that likely shaved at least one win off their line. Gold Coast won seven games last year with Matt Rowell still finding his way back from a serious shoulder injury and a number of young players finding their feet.
They are now favourites to win the spoon, but don’t write off a team with no expectations and a coach fighting for his life. They’ll find a way to win six games.
Verdict: Over
Season Win Line: 11.5
Do you believe the Giants can survive the first five games of the season without Toby Greene and still win 12 games? We do.
The Giants have stars across every line and young players ready to break out. They should at the very least hold ground on last year’s finals appearance.
Verdict: Over
Season Win Line: 7.5
The Hawks won seven and drew twice last year with Clarko at the helm. So the odds are that with a largely untested coach in charge of a developing group, that target will be hard to catch.
Development will be the main focus so five to seven wins seems most likely for the Hawks.
Verdict: Under
Season Win Line: 16.5
The reigning premiers clocked up 17 home and away wins plus one draw in their drought-breaking flag season. They will be well placed to get near that total again, but they will now be the hunted.
A premiership hangover from the extensive victory lap they’ve taken could hold them back ever so slightly. As will a much harder draw.
Verdict: Under
Season Win Line: 6.5
The Kangaroos are being tipped to struggle again, but many believe they’ll improve on last year’s output of four wins and a draw.
They’ll likely show promising signs at times and there will be ebbs and flows - as is the case with a young team - but they could win more than six games given they get the Crows, Suns and Hawks twice.
Verdict: Over
Season Win Line: 14.5
Top-two finishes in the past two years indicate that the Power enjoy racking up home and away wins.
They’ve won almost 78% of regular season games at the Adelaide Oval in the last two years, so on that basis they will get at least nine home wins in 2022.
Last year’s total of 17 will be difficult to match, but the 14.5 line should be covered by the Power… just.
Verdict: Over
Season Win Line: 13.5
After some flag success, the Tigers fell away in 2021, winning only nine games and drawing one.
So the line they’ve been set for 2022 does present some intrigue. In past years, 13.5 would be have been routine but this is a slightly different Richmond.
With some luck on the injury front, they’ll take care of that line, but if playing the percentages the under looks safer.
Verdict: Under
Season Win Line: 10.5
Bang on 10 wins the last two years for the Saints. At their absolute best they are capable of taking down this line, but there are some question marks.
The Lions, Dockers, Cats, Hawks and Swans are the sides they play twice, which is no simple task. Conservatively there looks to be 4-5 wins in that lot, so they’ll have to find another 6-7 elsewhere.
Verdict: Under
Season Win Line: 13.5
The Swans nailed 15 wins last year and the line has been set at 1.5 less this time around.
With natural improvement expected of the cub’s youngsters, and the fact their established stars are still in their prime, it could be achieved.
If Buddy plays every game it will be.
Verdict: Over
Season Win Line: 11.5
No more than 10 victories for the Eagles in 2021.
The new year has not been kind to the club with a handful of key players unavailable already.
There are concerns surrounding West Coast and if fortunes don’t soon change, it will be a hard task to reach more than 11 wins.
Verdict: Under
Season Win Line: 15.5
Despite losing the Grand Final, the Dogs look primed to go again in 2022.
The pocketed 15 home and away wins last year, which is a threshold that they just can’t break through.
They are expected to be a genuine contender again and that 15 mark seems to be about right. It’ll just take one more win…
Verdict: Over