The finals are here! Four games with the highest stakes: who comes out on top?
See our tips for the weekend below:
Port Adelaide v Geelong
Friday night
What a way to kick off the finals series.
Two strong sides in front of a pulsating Adelaide Oval crowd, this has all the makings of a finals classic.
While the Power head in as favourites with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games, the last clash between the two sides at the venue actually went in the Cats’ favour.
Taking a look back to Round 13, Geelong was able to get over the top of Port Adelaide by 21 points after pulling away in the last term.
Geelong’s talls were the difference makers in that game, with star recruit Jeremy Cameron and champion forward Tom Hawkins booting nine goals between them.
For Hawkins, this game will be his 300th at AFL level, and he’ll be hoping to make it one to remember for multiple reasons.
For the Power, they’ll be hoping that star midfield duo Ollie Wines and Travis Boak continue their strong form, with the pair getting the points in a match-up last week against a stacked Western Bulldogs on-ball unit.
With the Cats also possessing a vaunted midfield brigade, one would expect a tight tussle at stoppages with the work in front and behind the ball ultimately the deciding factor in how this one plays out.
Having been held goalless in the Power's crucial win last week, the tall trio of Charlie Dixon, Mitch Georgiades and Todd Marshall hold the key to the result. If they get going, the Power should be able to kick a winning score with Connor Rozee and Robbie Gray in top form at their feet.
If the big men fire and Port Adelaide’s defence don’t let Hawkins and Cameron off the chain, they should have enough in this one in front of their home crowd.
Expect a very tight battle, but on current form and at home, it’s hard to look past Ken Hinkley’s side.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 11 points.
Lachie Geleit
Sydney v GWS Giants
Saturday
Sydney and Greater Western Sydney will meet on the finals stage for the third time in six seasons when they face off in Tasmania’s north on Saturday afternoon.
Each has evolved from their last meeting on the big stage, an elimination final at the SCG in 2018, so as to be almost unrecognisable.
Sydney has been the sleeper hit of the season, with sublimely talented rookies outperforming expectations around an experienced midfield core and spine.
Draftees Errol Gulden, Braeden Campbell and Logan McDonald have turbocharged the Swans’ disposal.
When you combine them with Jordan Dawson and Justin McInerney shuttling up and down, intercepting, hitting targets and bothering the scorers, the Swans are delightfully fluid.
Expected to regress with Jeremy Cameron, Aidan Corr and Zac Williams having departed, the Giants have forged a grit-and-grind identity from their engine room riches.
Connor Idun and Isaac Cumming have kicked on and bolstered the backline, while Lachie Ash and Xavier O’Halloran have provided forward momentum as accountable wide players.
Justin Leppitsch contrasted the combatants on SEN’s Whateley on Tuesday.
“The Giants’ advantage is their score from stoppage differential. They’re +96 points for the season, and Sydney are -41 points,” he explained.
“The Swans’ advantage is that they’re the best (scoring from) turnover team in the competition, where the Giants are 14th.”
Leppitsch believes one approach is more sustainable than the other.
“Turnover always wins. You get twice as many opportunities to score from turnover as from stoppage,” he ruled.
If the Swans can control the footy and hit up targets, a partisan Tassie crowd will be on hand to help them surge into a semi-final.
“I think (the crowd) will be all Sydney,” AFL Tasmania head Damian Gill told SEN Breakfast on Monday.
“There’s actually decent Sydney support across Tasmania, and there’ll be a lot of love for Buddy (Franklin).”
The 34-year-old is just eight goals from the magical marker of 1000, and could reach it on the ground where he once booted 13 against North Melbourne.
This will be a game to savour, and perhaps the most captivating tactical tussle of the season.
The Swans’ record, four wins and 20 per cent to the good, is too hard to tip against. The Giants’ grind will hold up under the heat, however.
Tip: Sydney by 10 points.
Nathan John
Melbourne versus Brisbane
Saturday Night
Melbourne heads into this Qualifying Final on the back of a remarkable win over Geelong last weekend.
The Demons kicked eight of the last nine goals to beat the Cats by four points and as a result, claimed their first minor premiership since 1964.
They have tuned up for their first finals series since 2018 with four wins in a row and will be daring to dream as they strive to break a 57-year premiership drought.
On the Lions side of the equation, they enter a third successive finals campaign with three victories on the trot at an average margin of 62 points.
It took Chris Fagan’s men a while to get going against West Coast, but they eventually landed the needed blows to leapfrog the Western Bulldogs and secure fourth position and a double chance.
The two sides have met once in 2021.
Simon Goodwin’s side found itself behind by 20 points at half-time of the Round 12 meeting at Giants Stadium, but outscored the Lions by 42 points after the main break to come away with a comfortable 21-point win.
The Dees were described as the “real deal” after that victory and that moniker has only grown stronger since.
Brisbane has a little bit more experience in finals of late, but they have lost three of those across the past two seasons which is sure to have a mental impact.
The Demons are equipped with the tools to get the job done in a very close encounter.
Tip: Melbourne by 5 points.
Andrew Slevison
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
Sunday
The Western Bulldogs may be the fifth ranked team and Essendon eighth, but this is as close to a 50-50 final as you will see.
The Bombers come in with red-hot form, having belted Collingwood and Gold Coast to close the season.
Before that, they met the Bulldogs under the roof at Marvel Stadium and led after quarter time to pull off their best win of the season.
How much can we read into their encounter a month ago? Peter Wright kicked seven straight, Sam Draper dominated Tim English in the ruck, Aaron Francis was a factor inside 50, Essendon controlled the clearances and Josh Bruce went down with a season-ending injury after kicking three goals.
It’s hard to imagine Wright dominating to that extent, particularly with Alex Keath back in the side, but his confidence is high.
Ex-Bulldog Jake Stringer might just be the most in-form midfielder in the competition and if Essendon controls the clearances like they did in Round 21, they will put a ton of pressure on the Bulldogs defenders.
The game will also take place in Launceston, where you would expect Essendon to have the majority of the fans in attendance. The Dogs also only managed 37 points against Hawthorn playing at UTAS Stadium in Round 22.
The eighth placed team has upset the fifth placed since four times in the last eight years and it’s entirely possible Essendon does it again here.
Tip: Essendon by 9 points.
Nic Negrepontis