Justin Leppitsch has given his tips and predictions for week one of the AFL finals.
Speaking on SEN's Whateley, the former Brisbane coach and Richmond assistant has assessed all eight clubs and where the four finals will be won and lost.
Port Adelaide v Geelong
“Geelong are good at everything – sixth in turnover, sixth in stoppage, but first in the AFL for time in possession. They'll look to own the game as much as they can.
“Last week (Port Adelaide) were so dynamic. Port’s advantage is their contested ball – they’re first in the competition for differential in the last month.
“The second advantage for Port is no Tom Stewart. He had 11 intercepts last time and made it really hard for Port.
“They (Power) are winning close games – 6 of 6 close games this year and this is going to be one of those … and of course being at their home venue.”
VERDICT: Port Adelaide
Sydney v GWS
“The Giants' advantage is their score from stoppage differential for the year –they're +96 points for the season and Sydney are No.11 in the AFL, -41.
“Their midfield mix has the edge over the Swans with (Jacob) Hopper, (Lachie) Whitfield, (Callan) Ward, (Josh) Kelly, that depth of player.
“The Swans’ advantage is they're the best turnover team in the competition … and the Giants are 14th – that’s a massive discrepancy in that number.
“Turnover always wins. I’m going to pick the turnover game every time.”
VERDICT: Sydney
Melbourne v Brisbane
“The Lions' advantage is their recent form – they're first for points from stoppage and turnover the last month.
“They haven’t played the best teams in the competition either, so this is their greatest test in the last month, playing the top team.
“Melbourne's advantage is their defensive system which has been a highlight all season. Melbourne is the best intercept mark team in the competition.
“I'm expecting a high contest game, this could be more of a rugby league score than an AFL score.
“It’ll be closer than what we think.”
VERDICT: Melbourne
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
“The Dogs' advantage is the stoppage, if they get it right.
“When they win, they’re No.2 in the AFL for scores from stoppage differential, so that’s the dominant part of their game if they get it right. Essendon are 17th for contested possession over the season.
“Essendon in the last month are No.1 for marks inside 50, the Dogs are first for marks inside 50 against. That's a marry up. That’s a distinct marry up.
“If you’re a Western Bulldogs supporter, you’d be worried about Essendon’s ball movement. That would be the red flag.”
VERDICT: Essendon