Round 22 is here and we're down to the pointy end of the home and away season.
All aspects of the top eight are still up for grabs and this weekend’s results could flip the ladder on its head.
See our tips for the weekend below:
GWS v Richmond
Friday night - Marvel Stadium
GWS and Richmond square off in a must-win match with major finals implications.
Without a host of key players, the Giants moved back into the top eight after shocking premiership fancy Geelong by 19 points at GMHBA Stadium
Toby Greene (four goals), Tim Taranto (34 disposals and two), Isaac Cumming (34 and 997 metres gained) and Sam Taylor (21 and 12 marks) were enormous for the Giants in one of the upsets of the season.
Leon Cameron’s side cling onto eighth spot with Friday night's opponent the Tigers just two points back in 10th position.
The reigning premiers kept their finals alive with a 33-point win over North Melbourne, snapping a run of two straight defeats.
A seven-goal third quarter powered Richmond to a much-needed victory in their quest to make the eight. Jack Graham starred through the midfield with 36 disposals and eight tackles.
Damien Hardwick’s men won a Marvel Stadium thriller in the corresponding fixture in Round 9, largely thanks to Dustin Martin’s match-winning four-goal performance.
With Martin sidelined through injury and Richmond not in the most convincing form, the Giants shouldn’t hold any fears heading into the clash.
It’s a genuine 50-50 game with big ramifications for the loser.
Tip: GWS by 5 points.
Alex Zaia
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Saturday - UTAS Stadium
The Western Bulldogs will be looking to consolidate their top two spot in this clash, but that’ll be easier said than done against a resurgent Hawthorn outfit – particularly in Launceston.
While the Hawks started the season off poorly at their home away from home, their recent performance against Brisbane should ensure the Dogs will be wary of what Alastair Clarkson’s side are capable of.
Hawthorn’s win over Brisbane at the ground a fortnight ago cost the Lions a top four shot, and the Bulldogs will be hoping an upset won’t cost them a top two finish.
If their last two meetings tell us anything, the Bulldogs have a clear advantage at the source, and will all but certainly have a greater weight of numbers going inside 50 than Hawthorn.
In saying that, if the Hawks are to pull off an upset, they’ll need their back six to fire and hold the Bulldogs to a score below 80, and the loss of Josh Bruce could help them in that department.
Having earned the three Brownlow votes in their last clash in 2020 – with 28 disposals and 11 clearances - Marcus Bontempelli could just about sew up this year’s Brownlow Medal with another strong outing against the Hawks.
While recent form suggests the Hawks will put up a good fight, the Dogs should simply have too much class and get their hands on the ball often enough to put up a winning score.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 29 points.
Lachlan Geleit
Port Adelaide v Carlton
Saturday - Adelaide Oval
Carlton will bid farewell to club champion Marc Murphy in what will be his 300th and final game for the Blues.
Murphy, 34, announced on Tuesday that he will be hanging up the boots after Saturday’s match against Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval.
Selected with pick No.1 in the 2005 National Draft, the veteran midfielder will join John Nicholls, Bruce Doull, Craig Bradley, Stephen Silvagni and Kade Simpson in becoming the sixth Blue to play 300 games.
In 16 seasons at Ikon Park, Murphy was named All-Australian in 2011, won two best and fairest awards in 2011 and 2017, and captained the club between 2013 and 2018.
Carlton’s 19-point loss to Gold Coast last week severely dented their finals hopes as their inconsistency continues to hold them back.
Port Adelaide on the other hand are on a roll heading into September.
Last week’s four-point Showdown win over rivals Adelaide was the Power’s fourth on the trot, drawing them level on points with the Western Bulldogs and Geelong.
A win over the Blues would cement the Power a top four finish and a crucial double chance in the finals.
Port Adelaide have had no problems taking care of sides below them on the ladder this season and they’ll be out to spoil Murphy’s milestone match.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 22 points.
Alex Zaia
Geelong v St Kilda
Saturday - GMHBA Stadium
It was an unexpected loss suffered by Geelong in Round 21 when they went down at home to an undermanned GWS outfit.
Chris Scott’s Cats, who were coming off five comfortable wins on the trot, started the game in complete control but ended up conceding four goals in the opening term while scoring one themselves.
From there they were forced to play catch up all night and despite monstering the Giants for inside 50s (64-44), they couldn’t quite bridge the gap.
The result did not alter their position on the ladder which provides them with extra purpose for this clash with St Kilda as a top two spot and subsequent home final are on the line.
The Saints themselves were able to keep their faint finals hopes flickering by beating the previously in-form Sydney, who coincidentally had also won five in a row.
Brett Ratten would be somewhat perplexed by the inconsistency of his outfit who had been embarrassed by Carlton the week prior.
The bad news is that the Cats have relished this fixture in recent years, winning the last five by an average of 38 points, and stifling the Saints to just 24 goals in the last four of those encounters.
Earlier this season, however, the Saints were good value for a win but returned 5.17 with their inaccuracy costing them dearly in a 21-point loss.
There is plenty on the line for both clubs, but the Cats haven’t lost two in a row since 2018 and should return to the winners’ list here.
Tip: Geelong by 15 points.
Andrew Slevison
Brisbane v Collingwood
Saturday night - Gabba
A rematch of the thriller from earlier in the season, this weekend’s clash between the Lions and Pies promises plenty, even if Collingwood’s season is effectively over.
The Lions did what they had to do against Fremantle in the penultimate game of Round 20, keeping their faint top four hopes alive.
What would’ve pleased Chris Fagan’s side is Joe Daniher’s four-goal performance last week – he looms as an important part of the side with Eric Hipwood sidelined for the longer term through injury.
Who could forget their meeting earlier in the season, with the rescheduled game coming down to Zac Bailey’s after-the-siren goal. It was there where Brisbane’s season ignited somewhat.
Heading into this game, they still have plenty of questions to answer – principally how they’re positioning themselves ahead of a finals push that will likely have to come from outside the top four.
The Pies would love nothing more than to spoil Brisbane’s party at the tail end of the season, but the Lions enter this one as firm favourites.
This weekend’s game at the Gabba promises to be a fast and furious contest and one Brisbane should have little issue winning.
Tip: Brisbane by 25 points.
Laurence Rosen
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North Melbourne v Sydney
Saturday night - Marvel Stadium
Sydney will still be smarting after a surprising loss to St Kilda last week and face a North Melbourne side who have shown immense improvement in previous weeks.
The Swans still remain well in the frame to secure a top sixth birth and a ‘home’ elimination final, although it’s still unclear where it would be played as a result of the national COVID picture right now.
North Melbourne has lost two games in a row but have lost no admires so far this season, having shown plenty of positive signs since the bye.
The club announced on Thursday morning that forward Charlie Comben will make his debut as well, after injury last year saw him unable to take the field.
Heading into Saturday night’s game, North Melbourne will be hellbent on causing an upset so the Swans will have to be wary, although this really is a game Sydney should be winning comfortably if they hold out any hopes of making a deep finals run in 2021.
Tip: Sydney by 11 points.
Laurence Rosen
Melbourne v Adelaide
Sunday - MCG
Having flirted with falling out of the top four, the Dees are once again at the summit, and half a game clear to boot.
Where rivals for the minor premiership in Geelong and the Western Bulldogs faltered against teams on the fringe of the eight, Simon Goodwin’s side consolidated.
Their nine-point victory over West Coast was built on a dominant third term, when the Dees’ contested game and ball movement chimed in unison.
Led by James Harmes, who midway through the third had eight disposals, two clearances and two forward entries for the term, Melbourne were able to string handball chains together in the wet.
Their maturity was reflected in their capacity to score on the Eagles’ lapses of concentration, and how after the lightning hiatus, they preserved their lead like “a boxer in the corner with the arms up” to borrow a line from Justin Leppitsch.
The forward quandary that has tempered enthusiasm for the Demons throughout the season went some way to being answered too, as Ben Brown led the line seven marks and kicked three goals.
Adelaide went into Showdown L hoping to, as Reilly O’Brien once phrased it in a now-infamous tweet, “have clear plan and execute.”
It was exemplified by midfielder Ben Keays went to the Power’s smoothest on-baller in Travis Boak and limited him to 12 first half possessions.
Port Adelaide were obfuscated and frustrated, and kicked just one goal from their first 23 forward entries while the Crows were able to score out the back.
Eventually, Matthew Nicks’ men were ground up by the height, muscle and breakaway speed of their opponents.
Can they similarly put together a checklist to dethrone the Dees for the second time this season?
Back in Round 10 the Crows scored 12.4.76 from turnovers, dictating the tempo in a frenetic match even as the Demons racked up a +23 clearance differential.
This time around, Melbourne are better structured to score when they go forward from clearance and turnovers.
Adelaide appear tired, having won just two games since that sunny afternoon in mid-May, but have demonstrated their determination to enforce Nicks’ instructions over four quarters.
Tip: Melbourne by 20 points.
Nathan John
Gold Coast v Essendon
Sunday - GMHBA Stadium
The equation for Essendon is simple. Win their final two games and in all likelihood, play finals.
In their path is the Gold Coast Suns, who are coming off an impressive win over Carlton.
The Suns have been inconsistent across the season and tough to predict, having lost their previous two games by 147 points combined.
The Bombers meanwhile claimed the scalp of the season, knocking off the Western Bulldogs last Sunday.
The worry for Essendon is scores conceded, giving up 84 and 109 points to the Dogs and Swans in the last two weeks.
Though, it’s hard to see Gold Coast being as damaging on the scoreboard. They rank 17th in the competition for scoring across the season.
Essendon meanwhile is among the highest scoring teams in the competition and has a lot to play for.
They also have a strong record over Gold Coast, having only ever lost to the Suns twice.
The teams drew in 2020, but the last time the Suns defeated the Bombers was in Round 1 of 2016.
Assuming Essendon plays to the standard they set against the Bulldogs, it’s hard to see them losing.
They will likely dominate the centre clearances and give their forwards first use.
Tip: Essendon by 42 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Fremantle v West Coast
Sunday - Optus Stadium
It’s all or nothing time for the West Australian teams. It’s hard to see both playing finals and losing this Derby could be game over for one of them, particularly Fremantle.
You will need at least 11 wins to play finals and given West Coast finishes the season with Brisbane at the Gabba, this feels like the game they must win.
The Dockers must defeat their crosstown rivals and St Kilda in Victoria to get there.
Freo will be without star midfielder Andrew Brayshaw, who has been suspended, and given Nathan Fyfe is already on the sidelines, a lot will be asked of David Mundy and Adam Cerra.
West Coast’s midfield has been inconsistent, but still boasts big names who will prove tough to quell.
The Eagles’ record against their main rivals is phenomenal, having won their last 11 encounters.
When they met earlier in the season, West Coast won by 10 goals in a strange game, given fans were sent home minutes before the first ball was bounced due to a COVID scare.
It still reaffirmed the dominance the Eagles have in this matchup and given Fremantle’s injury issues and the high stakes, we’re favouring West Coast to win.
Tip: West Coast by 10 points.
Nic Negrepontis