Matthew Richardson believes Essendon is in the “box seat” to play finals this year.
The Bombers currently sit outside the eight in ninth position, two points behind GWS but with a stronger percentage.
There is a second slot in the eight up for grabs with West Coast, who occupy seventh, in danger of falling out given they’ve lost two on the trot and five of their last seven.
The Eagles could slip out of the eight if reigning premier Richmond beat the Giants on Friday night, before they meet Fremantle in the Western Derby on Sunday.
Pondering who joins the Demons, Dogs, Cats, Power, Lions and Swans in September, former Tiger Richardson feels the Bombers are almost a lock, with the other spot going to his old club or GWS.
“The Richmond and Giants game is absolutely crucial,” Richardson said on Sportsday.
“Whoever wins that game is a very strong chance to make it.
“I think Essendon are really in the box seat with games against the Suns and Collingwood.
“West Coast need to win both. Even if they beat Freo and then lose to Brisbane, their percentage could be below Richmond and Essendon.
“There’s two spots up for grabs. I think Essendon are pretty much in the box seat for one and I think the other spot is Richmond or the Giants.”
As for the team he believes deserves to be flag favourites right now, Richardson said: “Probably Melbourne after the weekend.
“Their forward line just looks a bit better now.”
With seventh down to 12th still capable of filling the two remaining spots in the eight, the final two home-and-away rounds will be an intriguing watch.
After the Giants and Tigers clash at Marvel Stadium to kickstart the round, 11th-placed St Kilda are up against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, the Dons take on the Suns on Sunday before the Dockers and Eagles clash at Optus Stadium to tie up the weekend of footy.