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Who will win and why? The tips and predictions for Round 11

2021-05-27T17:12+10:00

Round 11 has already been thrown about because of Melbourne's latest COVID-19 outbreak.

Some matches have been moved from their original venue but we will still get a full round of nine matches in (fingers crossed).

What we can control is what we think will happen on the field and who we believe will win.

So, who will win and why? Let's find out below:

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne

Friday night - Marvel Stadium

It may not be the game we all pictured in our heads a week ago, but Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs will face off at Marvel Stadium nonetheless.

It will be a battle between two 9-1 teams with the winner controlling top spot on the ladder.

The Dogs will be without Adam Treloar, but this is still a showcase of the two high-powered midfields.

Melbourne has big-bodied stars on the inside to make life tough for the likes of Tom Liberatore and Marcus Bontempelli and controlling the stoppages is key to slowing the Bulldogs’ movement.

The Demons also have the key forward threats to challenge a smaller Bulldogs defence, if they provide adequate supply.

On the Dogs side, they play Marvel better than any team in the league and can score in bursts if the opposition drops their guard for a minute.

The Bulldogs won the corresponding contest last year at Metricon Stadium comfortably.

While the Dogs go in the favourite, it’s hard not to think their injuries are piling up on them, particularly in defence.

Melbourne’s forward line might just be the difference in this game if their midfield breaks even.

Tip: Melbourne by 5 points.

Nic Negrepontis


Collingwood v Geelong

Saturday - MCG

Collingwood and Geelong have gone in different directions since last season’s Semi-Final encounter.

Lingering board level rumblings coupled with poor on-field performances has made it a year from hell for the struggling Magpies.

The club’s latest loss to Port Adelaide was their eighth of the campaign and leaves them languishing in 16th with Nathan Buckley’s coaching future the topic of much discussion.

Collingwood held sway for most of last week’s match only to be pipped by a solitary point, despite winning more contested and uncontested ball as well as clearances.

Meanwhile, Geelong extended their winning streak to three games after cruising past Gold Coast by 34 points to maintain their top four status.

The only downer was star midfielder Mitch Duncan suffering a game-ending concussion meaning he will miss Saturday’s clash.

Sitting third on the ladder, the Cats are eyeing off a double chance come September and another victory is essential in maintaining that charge.

The two Victorian heavyweights met twice last season with the Cats eliminating the Pies from the finals series courtesy of a 68-point belting.

Low-scoring games have become the norm in recent meetings between these two with 100 points cracked just once since 2017.

Tip: Geelong by 13 points.

Alex Zaia


Brisbane v GWS Giants

Saturday - Gabba

The Lions were very good last weekend, getting up close and personal with the Tigers before seeing them off by 28 points.

They host GWS with no fresh injury concerns, allowing them a settled side to back up with.

Many underestimated the Giants in Round 10, but they got the job done over West Coast, banking another four points against the odds and finding themselves a slot inside the top eight.

Jeremy Finlayson returned and helped Tom Green and Bobby Hill fill the scoring void left by Toby Greene and Jesse Hogan’s respective absences.

But it’s the other end of the ground that could again be problematic with defender Sam Taylor set for two months on the sidelines. That presents as an issue with the Lions key forwards Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher up and running, with support from smalls Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey.

It places the Lions in a strong position to make it seven wins in a row and at the Gabba they should be be extremely hard to beat.

The Giants will be competitive but getting one over Brisbane away from home might just be a bridge too far.

Tip: Lions by 24 points.

Andrew Slevison


St Kilda v North Melbourne

Saturday - Marvel Stadium

St Kilda and North Melbourne face off at Marvel Stadium in a clash that won’t exactly demand the attention of the football community.

The Kangaroos have proven that they’re comfortably the worst team in the competition, while the Saints have been playing like a bottom four side in recent weeks.

Both sides are coming off embarrassing losses in Round 10, with the Saints going down by 111 points to a scintillating Dogs outfit and North losing to Essendon by 72 points the following day.

While North fans won’t go into any game this season with much confidence, the recent head-to-head record suggests they’re a decent chance of causing an upset.

St Kilda last beat North Melbourne in 2017, with the Roos claiming victory in the last four meetings between the sides.

Last time they met was Round 1, 2020, with the Kangaroos coming from 29 points down at half-time to claim a two-point victory.

Veteran midfielder Ben Cunnington was immense for North that day, picking up the three Brownlow votes for his 25-disposal, two-goal game. He’ll need to have a big say again if his team is to earn its second win of the season.

While the recent head-to-head record favours North, you just can’t pick them due to their current stage of development.

Brett Ratten’s Saints should have too much talent and experience across the board to get the job done, and comfortably.

Tip: St Kilda by 34 points.

Lachlan Geleit


Gold Coast v Hawthorn

Saturday night - SCG

The pressure is set to ramp up on Gold Coast against as they come up against a struggling Hawthorn outfit in a game both sides will be targeting as winnable.

The Suns were valiant in defeat against Geelong last week, while the Hawks put up a fight against Carlton but were ultimately outgunned by the end of last Saturday’s contest at the MCG.

The battle between two bottom four sides promises to be intriguing in its own right, and could very well dial up the pressure on the team that doesn’t came away from the game with four points.

Tom Mitchell is finding plenty of footy at the moment and the Suns will have to put plenty of work into him, whether Stuart Dew opts to deploy a hard tag or a run-with player to take on the Hawks star remains to be seen.

Gold Coast is probably favourites for this one considering the game will be played outside of Victoria, but it’s a genuine 50-50 contest that should go right down to the wire.

Tip: Gold Coast by 4 points.

Laurence Rosen


West Coast v Essendon

Saturday night - Optus Stadium

Essendon’s fifth game outside of Victoria in 2021 sees them travel west for a daunting task against an Eagles side that will be smarting after losing another game on the road last week.

West Coast is in an interesting spot at the moment, having lost three of their four away games so far this year, but remaining undefeated in games at Optus Stadium.

If their form away from Perth continues in coming weeks, the pressure on them to keep winning at home only grows.

The Bombers smashed North Melbourne by 72 points last week as their next generation of stars continue to impress, but on the back of doing what they had to do against the Roos, they’ll be relishing the chance to cause an upset out west.

The ruck will be one aspect where the Eagles will be looking to take advantage, with Essendon’s first choice big man in Sam Draper still sidelined and no certainty to return this week.

Much has been made of Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett’s strong run of form, but how they go up against a strong West Coast on-ball outfit will go a long way to deciding the match.

Adam Simpson’s side is clear favourites for this one and should win relatively comfortably, but don’t discount the Bombers who are impressing plenty this year.

Tip: West Coast by 32 points.

Laurence Rosen

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Richmond v Adelaide

Sunday - Giants Stadium

Richmond was set to return to the MCG for the first time since early May, but COVID-19 has scuppered those plans with this game now to take place in western Sydney.

The Tigers slipped out of the eight after losing to the Lions in Brisbane and simply need to win this to keep in touch with the top teams.

Yes, they are without some key midfielders, and although some of those will begin to return in coming weeks (perhaps even this week), the reigning premiers have to cope without their full side for the time being.

They also now have to deal with the loss of Tom Lynch for at least a month.

It will be a stern test as Matthew Nicks’ Crows are more than competitive around the ball and have proven that they can mix it with the best

They’ll need to reproduce what delivered them a one-point win over the previously undefeated Demons last weekend or risk a seething Tigers outfit getting on top.

With the Tigers sitting at 5-5, Damien Hardwick will be intent on edging onto the positive side of the ledger. It will be vital ahead of the business end of the season.

Richmond’s best is good enough and with even luck on neutral ground, they should see off a plucky Crows side.

Tip: Richmond by 22 points.

Andrew Slevison


Sydney v Carlton

Sunday - SCG

Sydney versus Carlton at the SCG looms as a fascinating game and an old-fashioned eight-pointer.

If the Swans lose two on the trot, it will open the door for the likes of the Blues and Fremantle to pounce on their top eight spot.

Sydney played well losing to the Dockers last week, with Lance Franklin booting six goals. Carlton meanwhile beat Hawthorn in a scrap.

The Blues won the corresponding clash last year at Metricon Stadium, with a Matthew Cottrell goal in the dying minutes separating them. Carlton also beat the Swans at the SCG in 2019.

Their tall forward line will trouble the Swans’ defenders, though up the other end Franklin has a strong record historically against the Blues.

It will likely come down to the midfield battle and who takes control. Ed Curnow is expected to go to one of Luke Parker or Callum Mills to curb their influence, while the Swans should put some work into the ultra-consistent Sam Walsh.

Tom Hickey will have a lot of work to do in the ruck up against both Marc Pittonet and Tom De Koning and the Blues will need to work Nick Blakey over whenever he goes in there.

Carlton has beaten the teams beneath them so far this season, but must take a scalp to prove their legitimacy.

The Swans have shown enough this year to trust them in this contest, but it should be an even game.

Tip: Sydney by 12 points.

Nic Negrepontis


Port Adelaide v Fremantle

Sunday - Adelaide Oval

Port Adelaide and Fremantle both take winning form into Sunday’s match at Adelaide Oval.

The Power had to come from behind to beat lowly Collingwood by one point in a low-scoring scrap on the road to stay in touch with the top four.

There was not much to write home about regarding Port’s performance as they lost the contested ball and clearance count and were far from their fluent best.

But with another valuable four points in the bank – albeit unconvincingly – the Power are well placed at 7-3 approaching the midway mark of the season.

Coming off three straight losses, the Dockers got back on the winners' list with a thrilling home win over top eight side Sydney.

Skipper Nat Fyfe’s scrubby late goal proved to be the winner as Freo held on to claim victory by two points.

They’re now equal on points with ninth-placed Richmond and eighth-placed GWS with a 5-5 win-loss record.

Fremantle won on their last visit to Adelaide Oval, beating the Crows by 14 points in Round 5 – their only win away from Optus Stadium this season.

The Dockers will need to improve their away form if they want to make the eight. This is an opportunity to enhance their finals credentials.

Fremantle have never beaten the Power at Adelaide Oval.

Tip: Port Adelaide by 22 points.

Alex Zaia


Quaddie EDM@2x

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