Carlton enters 2021 with expectations of playing finals for the first time, essentially, since 2013.
They were in the mix last year, but close losses in the second half of the season compounded and the Blues ran out of steam with a month to go.
They added three players to their best 22 in the trade period, with Adam Saad, Zac Williams and Lachie Fogarty injecting speed and creativeness into the line-up.
The trio will be important this year, but if Carlton makes finals it will be because of internal improvement.
Carlton’s ladder spike will come from highly drafted youngsters breaking out and/or getting healthy.
The poster boy for this is Paddy Dow, who enters his fourth year and impressed across the pre-season games.
The midfielder was drafted with pick three in the 2017 National Draft and had a tough 2020, struggling to break into the team after early injuries.
Carlton desperately needed on-ball depth last year and adding Sam Walsh, who spent 2020 on the wing, Zac Williams and a breakout Dow to their existing core would go a long way.
Dow isn’t alone, though. The Blues’ list is essentially split into three camps, excluding the trio of trade acquisitions.
The proven performers and veterans who have been carrying the load: Eddie Betts, Marc Murphy, Ed Curnow, Jack Newnes, Liam Jones, Levi Casboult, Jack Silvagni, Patrick Cripps, Zac Williams, Jack Martin, Lachie Plowman, Sam Docherty, Jacob Weitering, Nic Newman, Marc Pittonet, Michael Gibbons and the 20-year-old Sam Walsh.
These players are either established best 22 players or players you know what you’re going to get from at this point.
Group two is the youngsters and periphery players: Brodie Kemp, Sam Philp, Sam Ramsay, Luke Parks, Corey Durdin, Jack Carroll, Matt Cottrell, Matt Owies, Matthew Kennedy, Oscar McDonald and Josh Honey.
The core that will decide Carlton’s fate is group three:
Paddy Dow, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Mitch McGovern, Zac Fisher, Charlie Curnow, Caleb Marchbank, Harry McKay, David Cuningham, Lochie O’Brien, Tom Williamson, Will Setterfield, Tom De Koning and Liam Stocker.
13 players make up group three and most of them have been brought in at the cost of significant draft capital.
The only exceptions being Zac Fisher, Tom De Koning and Tom Williamson, three of Carlton’s rare draft hits outside of the first round under list manager Stephen Silvagni.
The other 10 were either first round draftees or cost the Blues a pretty penny in the trade period.
It’s fair to say Carlton, when they elected to undertake a full rebuild going into the 2015 season, pinned all of their hopes to those 10 players, and 2021 is the year to begin reaping what they’ve sowed.
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Petrevski-Seton has been a regular in the Blues’ side since being drafted, but has been moved into defence and the jury is still out as to whether the sixth pick in the 2016 National Draft will thrive there.
McKay feels close to a breakout after a strong 2020, while McGovern simply can’t get on the park as back and hamstring issues continue to plague him.
The equation for the Blues is simple. If a chunk of that group of 13 meets the expectations originally set for them and takes load off Carlton’s established core, then they should make a jump.
If they don’t, it’s hard to see much changing for them in 2021.
Some injury luck to coincide with that would also be helpful.
