Round 1 is here!
Forget about green vests, interchange restrictions and the man on the mark – it’s time to talk about some actual football.
We’ve gone game by game through Round 1’s games to make some tips and predictions.
Richmond v Carlton
Thursday night - MCG
The 2021 season is back and in front of crowds no less!
The annual Richmond versus Carlton opener kicks us off on Thursday night and we cannot hide our excitement.
Reigning premiers the Tigers enter with a very strong side, with Bachar Houli the only injury casualty from the Grand Final, and captain Trent Cotchin out with gastro. For the Blues, they will be without the likes of Charlie Curnow, Mitch McGovern, Caleb Marchbank, Jack Martin, Nic Newman and prized recruit Zac Williams.
The first game of the season over the past five or six years has generally been played in a similar fashion, with either the Tigers or Blues kicking out to an early lead, the trailing side fighting back, and ultimately Richmond winning. This could be the same yet again with both sides always showing a bit of rust throughout their first blowout.
Carlton will no doubt be competitive and give Richmond a scare at stages but the yellow and black should be able to keep the Blues at arm’s length over the course of the night with their system, team-first game and overall quality expected to shine through.
Tip: Richmond by 26 points.
Andrew Slevison
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs
Friday night - MCG
Perhaps the most anticipated match of Round 1, all eyes will be on the MCG as Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs do battle on Friday night.
Collingwood couldn’t keep themselves out of the headlines this off-season, and one of the main talking points was the Adam Treloar saga and subsequent last-minute trade to the Bulldogs.
The deal was finalised at the eleventh hour of the trade period to send Treloar to the Dogs, and interest has increased ever since the AFL announced this mouth-watering early season match-up.
The Magpies' decision to offload Treloar along with Tom Phillips and Jaidyn Stephenson has caused pundits to predict a regression for Nathan Buckley’s side in 2021, and the club will be raring to respond to their critics.
Quite starkly, the Bulldogs have been one of the more hyped sides of the off-season, with many salivating at the prospects of their already deep star-studded midfield which now includes Treloar.
Despite this, the Bulldogs last beat the Magpies in Round 1 of 2017, with ruckman Brodie Grundy in particular causing headaches for Luke Beveridge and his coaching staff.
The club will be hoping the addition of Stefan Martin can help quell Grundy’s influence as they try to wrestle back first use at stoppages.
Both clubs will be looking to bounce back from disappointing finals exits, and despite pre-season chatter and the Treloar move, the Magpies’ recent record against the Bulldogs is too significant to ignore.
Tip: Collingwood by 9 points
Lachlan Geleit
Melbourne v Fremantle
Saturday - MCG
Melbourne and Fremantle are hard teams to predict going into 2021, with both finishing outside the top eight last year, but both hoping to be on the rise.
Both had an impressive performance in the pre-season, with the Demons beating Richmond and the Dockers beating West Coast. They both followed those wins up with poor losses the following week.
They both have lengthy injury lists as well, particularly inside 50. The Dees are without Ben Brown, Sam Weideman and Kysaiah Pickett, while Freo has lost Michael Walters, Sam Sturt and Rory Lobb.
Fremantle won their 2020 encounter up at Cazaly’s Stadium and have won three of their last four against Melbourne on the MCG – though it’s hard to read too much into previous form given how different this Dockers team is to previous incarnations.
This game will feature two defensively set sides and undermanned forward lines, so it’s hard to see it being much of a shootout.
The midfield battle will be interesting, with Max Gawn likely to control the air and Melbourne’s bigger bodied on-ballers capable of dominating a younger Docker group on the inside.
This game feels like a total toss of the coin given the lack of exposed form and when in doubt, tip the home team.
Tip: Melbourne by 8 points.
Nic Negrepontis
Adelaide v Geelong
Saturday - Adelaide Oval
Just three and a half years on from meeting in a preliminary final at this venue, the respective fortunes of the Crows and Cats could scarcely have diverged further.
Smarting from a Grand Final loss to Richmond after leading handily at half time, Chris Scott and his team have loaded up: former Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron, Shaun Higgins and Isaac Smith have landed at Kardinia Park, to fortify the oldest list in the competition.
Geelong were pinned back by Essendon in their pre-season meeting, but won at the coalface absent a recognised ruckman and as Scott put it, there is a “false economy” with eight players on the bench. When they broke through the Bombers’ press, they looked potent.
Rookie Crows coach Matthew Nicks and his side had to wait until Round 15 to get off the mark in 2020, too often torched over-committing to the ground ball and rarely running back efficiently if at all.
From there, Adelaide stitched together three wins in a row as the threads of a new style began to entwine. Nicks emphasised repetition on the training ground and in the film room, and it became evident in the onballers’ understanding of where to be, and when it was their turn to go in.
In the AAMI Community Series fixture this chemistry was absent across the side, and the Power feasted with a +123 disposal differential and a staggering 190 marks. Structure will come with the return of experienced defenders but there is a long road ahead for Nicks, both to find the mix to take Adelaide forward and to make it gel.
Expect the wily Cats to prey on this lack of cohesion.
Tip: Geelong by 42 points
Nathan John
Essendon v Hawthorn
Saturday night - Marvel Stadium
These two traditional rivals meet in unique circumstances, with both sides in somewhat of a rebuild mode heading into the 2021 season.
The refreshed Bombers under new coach Ben Rutten boast a suite of new faces, with the likes of Nik Cox, Archie Perkins and Harry Jones all expected to feature in Saturday night’s season-opener.
Over at Hawthorn, Alastair Clarkson’s sides have plenty of young players and they are also expected to play early, with Next Generation Academy product Connor Downie top of the list.
Both teams would fancy themselves heading into this year, with the sense of unknown palpable as the Bombers look to bounce back from a disappointing 2020, while the Hawks will be looking to silence the doubters who have them finishing in the bottom four this season.
Under the Saturday night spotlight and in front of a sold out 50 per cent capacity crowd, there’s plenty of intrigue about this one.
Tip: Essendon by 10 points
Laurence Rosen
Brisbane v Sydney
Saturday night - Gabba
The Lions and Swans kick off their respective seasons at the same venue where the tumultuous 2020 season finished up.
After years of being owned by the Swans, the Lions finally arrested back control at the Gabba in 2019 before making it two wins on the trot with a comfortable 32-point triumph in Cairns last year.
Having the win ledger back on their side while opening the new season at home should see Chris Fagan’s men cross the white line with a spring in their step.
Additionally, the sight of a fit and firing Joe Daniher standing inside forward 50 alongside Eric Hipwood with Charlie Cameron hovering nearby could provide Sydney with a few heart tremors. The Swans’ defence goes in with the inexperienced Tom McCartin and the developing Lewis Melican armed with the job of negating that dangerous attack.
The Swans enter the clash with a mix of experience and youth. Lance Franklin won’t play while draftees Braeden Campbell, Logan McDonald and Errol Gulden are expected to make their debuts.
John Longmire’s Swans were generally competitive and were in many games last season before ultimately finishing 15th and the only way is up.
However, they are likely to start the new campaign with a loss as the Lions look set to get things started with four points on home soil.
Tip: Brisbane by 26 points
Andrew Slevison
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sunday - Marvel Stadium
Few teams come into 2021 with more momentum than Port Adelaide and based on last year’s form, they should be far too strong for North Melbourne under the roof at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The Kangaroos enter a new era under coach David Noble and with quite a few new faces on the field. They were competitive in their AAMI Community Series loss to Hawthorn, despite missing key starting midfielders.
North however still has a lengthy injury list and a team at the start of a rebuild doesn’t have the wiggle room to compete with a side like the Power missing so many key players.
Port Adelaide has won four of their last five against the Kangaroos, including a comfortable six-goal win in 2020 and an 86-point win late in 2019.
How key recruits Aliir Aliir and Orazio Fantasia fare will be a point of interested after both dominated the AAMI Community Series.
With the additional speed in the game that we saw in the pre-season and the extra fatigue from reduced rotations, we could see some big blowouts in the pristine Marvel Stadium conditions and this may be one of them.
Port Adelaide has too much firepower inside 50 and should control the midfield battle against a Roos side missing key pieces.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 65 points
Nic Negrepontis
GWS Giants v St Kilda
Sunday - GIANTS Stadium
2020 was a year to forget for GWS.
Coming off a humiliating Grand Final loss the season prior, the Giants tumbled down the ladder to finish in 10th place, heaping pressure on coach Leon Cameron with their premiership window seemingly closing.
It’s been a less than ideal preparation for Cameron’s side with recruits Jesse Hogan (quad) and Braydon Preuss (shoulder) having injury-interrupted pre-seasons.
Despite losing star duo Jeremy Cameron and Zac Williams last trade period, there’s still enough talent at the Giants to mount a finals challenge.
Can Cameron get the best out of a list that contains the likes of Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio and Lachie Whitfield?
It hasn’t been smooth sailing for St Kilda either this off-season.
Serious injuries to captain Jarryn Geary (leg), Rowan Marshall (foot), Ben Paton (leg), James Frawley (hamstring) and Max King’s bizarre golf-related concussion has depleted the Saints. Paddy Ryder’s leave of absence dealt a further blow to the club’s rock stocks.
The Saints’ depth is already being tested with many predicting another top eight finish after breaking their near decade-long finals drought last season.
The big question facing Brett Ratten’s men is can they back up again with heightened expectations in 2021?
St Kilda thrashed the Giants by 52 points in the final round of last year’s home and away season. They're yet to win at GIANTS Stadium, having lost in their previous two visits.
The under-strength Saints to get home in a tight one.
Tip: St Kilda by 10 points
Alex Zaia
West Coast v Gold Coast
Sunday evening - Optus Stadium
West Coast and Gold Coast enter their season-opening clash at Optus Stadium this weekend with plenty of questions to answer.
The Eagles struggled with hub life through large periods of 2020 and will still be smarting after their shock one-point home elimination final loss against Collingwood last October.
While for the Suns, the time is now for a side that has teased in the early part of previous seasons, but more than a decade on since their inception are still yet to feature in finals action.
Gold Coast welcomes several new recruits this year, as well as Matt Rowell returning to full fitness after he burst onto the scene. Over at the Eagles, Alex Witherden is expected to slot in at half back and adds a new dynamic to a defensive unit where intercept marking is always at the forefront.
The Suns famously beat West Coast in their meeting last year, just the second time they had done so over the Eagles.
Adam Simpson’s side heads into this one as heavy favourites, purely because of the dominance they hold at Optus Stadium.
But do not discount the Suns, who would like nothing more than causing a big upset on Sunday night football.
Tip: West Coast by 22 points
Laurence Rosen