Huge day of Group racing at Caulfield today.
The $1.5 million Blue Diamond Stakes for the two-year-olds is the feature, ably supported by fellow Group 1 races the Futurity Stakes and Oakleigh Plate.
Weather is fine, rail is in the true and the track is a Good 4.
Race 1 - Listed Mornington Cup Prelude (2000m) @ 12:40pm
Keen Defibrillate continues his winning ways in the opener. Looks well suited in this at his pet distance and a track where’s two from two. Jockey Billy Egan has a great record on the horse winning five (and two places) from seven rides.
The main danger is Wolfe. Has raced in much better company than this and has been good so far this prep. From a speed map point of view, he will be lengths in front of Defibrillate in the straight.
Blenheim Palace is an interesting runner second-up in Australia and has claims, while Aussie Nugget and Hang Man (who dead-heated with Defibrillate last time) will be around the mark.
Suggested bet: Confident Defibrillate ($2.4) kicks off on a winning note.
Race 2 - G3 Zeditave Stakes (1200m) @ 1:15pm
Tricky little race to follow up the first.
Leaning towards Conceited who was mighty impressive in his debut prep. Ran well behind Away Game last time which is good form for this. First-up since January last year which is a slight query.
Oxley Road might just be above average. Won beautifully on a heavy track at Flemington on debut and can certainly go on with it.
Tipped It’sourtime each-way two weeks ago and he was solid at Group 2 level behind Poland. Drops back to 1200 metres for this. Has just come up a bit skinny.
Valaquenta next best. Has been more effective over 1000 or 1100.
Suggested bet: Not overly keen to get heavily involved. Conceited ($6.5) appeals at the price. Save on Oxley Road ($3.2).
Race 3 - G2 Angus Armanasco Stakes (1400m) @ 1:50pm
Siding with Impecunious after her terrific first-up win in mid December. The former Kiwi steps up sharply in class but looks a talent.
Safe Passage has strung two wins together under Damian Lane and should sit right on the pace from the inside gate.
Malicorne has her hoof on the till. Was game in defeat behind La Mexicana here last time. Can go one better if she can get the 1400 metres, following a failure at this distance here in September.
Chica Fuerte, if primed first-up, can give a good sight at nice odds and Miss Guggenheim is in the mix.
Suggested bet: Backing Impecunious ($3) to win. Some other key hopes so not supremely confident.
Race 4 - G3 Mannerism Stakes (1400m) @ 2:25pm
Perfect Jewel has this race at her mercy. Races well fresh and drops rapidly in class after running well at Group 1 and 2 level last prep. Willie Pike on and she should be winning.
Sovereign Award looks to be the map horse. Should get a soft lead and if Damien Oliver can pinch a break, she’ll be hard to run down.
Rich Hips loves a firm track but has been known to mix her form and Lunakorn is next best with Jamie Kah back aboard.
Suggested bet: Perfect Jewel ($2.2) is short enough but should win. Small bet Sovereign Award ($6.5) as well.
Race 5 - G2 Autumn Classic (1800m) @ 3pm
Tough to separate the top few in the market.
Khoekhoe is first-up at the 1800 but runs well at this distance range. Suspect the Cumani stable have him primed for this.
Young Werther is clearly talented and can win if he gets the breaks.
Butter Chicken steps up from a Pakenham maiden and gets Jamie Kah on board and Parure has won two of her past three. But beware, fillies have a terrible record in this (1 winner from 31 starters past 30 years).
Milton Park was too bad to be true last week and returns on the quick back-up.
Narvaez is fit and should lead under Glen Boss for the Waterhouse/Bott yard.
Suggested bet: Can’t suggest any with a great deal of confidence. Pass.
Race 6 - G1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) @ 3:35pm
This is a belter of a race.
Going to stick with the big boy Behemoth. Has won two Group 1s at Caulfield over 1400 and no reason to believe he won’t do so again. This is a cracking field but he can win this.
Probabeel is a clear and present danger. She was ridden closer to the speed here in the G3 Bellamine last time and beat a decent field easily.
Feels a little wrong to have Arcadia Queen as third pick. She is a freak and no doubt can win first-up. She is a legitimate Group 1 horse and loves a dry track.
Expecting the winner to come from those three with Ole Kirk around the mark. Probably shouldn’t discount reigning Futurity champ Streets Of Avalon, but it would be an almighty effort to win this!
Suggested bet: Difficult to split the top two in the market, so backing both Behemoth ($3.2) and Probabeel ($3.8) to profit.
Race 7 - G1 Blue Diamond Stakes 2YO (1200m) @ 4:15pm
The feature of the day and isn’t she a doozy!
That’s if you are looking around the favourite Enthaar of course. She had some apparent lameness issues in the lead-up but is cleared fit to run and on that, you have to respect her. Boom filly who can slide forward from the outside gate, sit three wide and win.
Looking to the Godolphin duo Anamoe and Ingratiating for value. Ollie has chosen the ride on the former who will relish the 1200, while Willie Pike is on the latter who was impressive here last Saturday.
General Beau has to be in the top chances, while Jigsaw, Arcaded and Finance Tycoon are right in the mix.
Suggested bet: If you are happy to take $2.6 in a G1 for 2YOs, then back yourself in and back Enthaar. If not, two-bet play on Anamoe ($6) and Ingratiating ($10).
Race 8 - G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) @ 4:55pm
As always the Oakleigh Plate is an absolute humdinger with chances galore.
Zoutori lands on top. Narrowly beaten by Pippie in this last year and comes into it after a similar length spell. Can sit off them in a high pressure sprint and power home late. Kah rides.
Have Ancestry next. Possesses great speed at both ends of the race and with a lightish weight and good draw can win.
Anders with Glen Boss aboard is the best of the three-year-olds, Celebrity Queen and Dirty Work have strong hopes while Kemalpasa could be the value.
Note: First-up horses have won 7 of the last 9 editions, including the last five in a row.
Very tough affair.
Suggested bet: Backing Zoutori ($11/$3.7) each-way, but going easy. This is hard.
Race 9 - G2 Peter Young Stakes (1800m) @ 5:35pm
Happy to have Paradee on top for the final event. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race and is in winning form after back-to-back romps on the Gold Coast. Loves this distance and has raced well here.
Chapada is first-up but has been racing well in strong staying races and can be more than competitive at lovely odds.
Homesman is the class in the race and can win if they allow Jye McNeil to control it from the front. Nonconformist next best.
Suggested bet: Keen to back Paradee ($4.6) and a small each-way wager on Chapada ($18/$4.4).
Suggested multi
Race 1, No.4 - Defibrillate WIN
Race 4, No.1 - Perfect Jewel WIN
Race 7, No.13 - Enthaar WIN
Approx. odds: $13.8
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