Saturday racing returns to Caulfield following the Australia Day meeting on Tuesday.
The track played fairly that day but there are a few unknowns today with the rail out 9 metres and a fair bit of rain around Melbourne providing us with a Soft 5.
A little bit more rain is forecast (is there really BOM?) but hopefully it doesn’t wreak too much havoc with the track.
Race 1 - Ive Print Handicap @ 12:55pm
The Maher/Eustace filly Lariat looks the overs in the opener. Was only fair last start but drops down in class and up to the 1400 suits. Is the outsider in the race but is great value.
Sensationalisation appears the obvious and should handle the soft going, but is short enough.
Winning chances to the next three in the market Miss Divine Em, Shojiki and Vespertine.
Suggested bet: Not getting carried away in the first. Small win bet on Lariat at $12 if you’re keen to get involved.
Suit yourself with the $2.8 for Sensationalisation as certainly can win.
Race 2 - Quayclean Handicap BM78 @ 1:30pm
High ’N’ Dry is in winning form and can go on with it. Steps up in class after he was dominant last time at Flemington. Hoping he can be low flying in the wet today.
Aussie Nugget has been costly last two starts but is back to a grade where he can return to winning ways. Wary of his soft track form though (4:0-0-0). Will get back and run on and can win.
Think ’N’ Fly has been consistent this prep while Kazio and Dubai Dominion are next best.
Suggested bet: Happy to be with High ’N’ Dry at around the $4.2 mark.
Race 3 - Neds Toolbox Handicap BM70 @ 2:05pm
Hard to go past Hasseltoff who hasn’t missed the quinella in his past five starts. The price isn’t too inviting though, especially after scratchings, so will look around for some value.
That comes in the form of Upswing. Steps up to a BM70 after winning at Wangaratta with a big weight. Drawn well and expect to be fairly competitive. Likes his toe in the soft stuff.
War Critic is another in the mix if you are looking away from the fave but aside from that there aren’t too many genuine hopes in my humble.
Suggested bet: Hasseltoff looks the one but is no value. Can entertain Upswing each-way at $6.5/$2.
Race 4 - Chairman's Stakes 2YO G3 @ 2:40pm
Enthaar on top in the Group 3 for two-year-olds. No prizes for picking her and no price at all, but should be winning.
Ingratiating is the main danger, obviously, and can win.
Suggested bet: Will just watch them go around here with Enthaar at prohibitive odds of $1.20-ish.
Race 5 - Manfred Stakes 3YO G3 @ 3:20pm
Pretty tricky race.
Aysar versus Tagaloa with Dickin Medal and Portland Sky as more than adequate supporting acts and last-start winner All Stardom thrown in for good measure.
Leaning the way of Aysar. Will handle the soft ground and can take care of this small field.
Tagaloa is clearly a danger but simply wasn’t at his best last preparation so is some risk.
Dickin Medal next best but rises rapidly in class. Can he measure up against proven Group horses?
Suggested bet: Aysar to win.
Race 6 - Mal Seccull Handicap BM78 @ 4pm
Hidden Legend rounded them up at this track/distance last time out on Boxing Day. Rises in class here but it doesn’t look a great deal harder. He won that a month between runs and John Sadler is using the same plan here.
China Affair is a winning chance if he is afforded some luck and Ollie sticks, which is a bonus.
Montenegro Man is more than competent in this grade and can win, while Ginger Jones and Paperboy are also in the mix.
Suggested bet: Backing both Hidden Legend at around $3.8 and China Affair at $6.
Race 7 - Here For The Horses Handicap BM78 @ 4:40pm
Not jumping into this race head on.
Yulong Captain has a very good winning chance, particularly now he’s back to his pet distance of 2400m.
Tarn’s Prince can plonk right on the pace and will give a good sight. Long Arm is expected to also be suited up to the distance.
Reflect The Stars and Classic Weiwei next best.
Suggested bet: Leaving this alone. Yulong Captain is primed to win but looks unders.
Race 8 - Robert Hunter Handicap BM78 @ 5:20pm
Sky Horse resumes and drops from Group racing to a BM78. Can run well first-up at nice odds. Has won on a heavy track so the soft should be fine.
Hearty Lass won well here two back and gets Jamie Kah on. Can be in the finish.
Maximak loves soft ground and is extremely effective at the distance.
Hasstobegood appears to be a slightly vulnerable favourite while Need New Friends, Charleise and Brazen Song are all winning hopes.
Tough race.
Suggested bet: Small bet Sky Horse each-way.
Race 9 - John Moule Handicap @ 5:55pm
We wait until the last for the best bet of the day.
Defibrillate, while short, looks extremely hard to beat. Well graded, well weighted, track/distance winner, undefeated on soft ground. All big ticks. Drawn wide but can drop back and run on.
Sound is first-up and drops enormously in class but may want it a touch further.
Heavenly Emperor maps quite well, compared to the fave. But will he be strong enough up to 1800m?
Pancho, Dawson Diva and Hang Man next best.
Suggested bet: Certainly not getting the price we got two starts ago, but Defibrillate looks the winner at $2.5.
Suggested safe multi:
Race 2, No.5 - High ’N’ Dry - PLACE
Race 3, No.3 - Hasseltoff - WIN
Race 6, No.1 - Hidden Legend - PLACE
Race 9, No.3 - Defibrillate - WIN
Approx. odds: $10.20
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