Victoria
South Australia
Western Australia
Still we can't get a full grip on this topsy-turvy season but still we forge on.
We picked seven of last week's nine winners, narrowly missing the Blues over the Bombers and getting the St Kilda result over Richmond wrong.
Ahead of Round 5, we've dissected each of the fixtures as we enter yet another compelling round of footy.
Carlton v St Kilda
Thursday, 7:40pm, Marvel Stadium
Carlton and St Kilda were thrust into the Thursday night spotlight, which means both sides will be coming in equally underprepared for what is an intriguing match-up. Both teams want to play offensive football at pace, but both have reliable backlines that should be able to hold up if their midfield gets on top.
The game being shifted from the MCG to Marvel Stadium certainly favours St Kilda, with the Saints looking a far better team in the perfect conditions under the roof than in the open expanses of the ‘G. Carlton conversely used the bigger ground well against Essendon, spreading them out and transitioning the ball well from end to end.
St Kilda will need to quell the influence of Patrick Cripps, who has averaged 29 disposals per game against them in their last four meetings, while Jack Steele has been equally damaging against the Blues in the same sample size.
The Saints will be looking for big games from the likes of Dan Butler and Jade Gresham, with small forwards the way to expose Carlton defensively even with Jacob Weitering and Liam Jones in excellent form.
Expect an even contest, but St Kilda have been a stronger side across all four quarters of games so far this season, while the Blues have a tendency to drop away for 20 minutes, allowing teams to punish them.
Tip: St Kilda by 10.
Nic Negrepontis
Collingwood v Essendon
Friday, 7:50pm, MCG
It’s always an occasion when Collingwood and Essendon play at the MCG and Friday night is no less important, even if their meeting in 2020 will take place in very differing circumstances.
Both sides went down in disappointing fashion last week – the Pies lost to the Giants again while the Bombers were beaten around the ball and eventually succumbed to Carlton by a point.
Essendon don’t hold a good record against Collingwood of late, losing to Nathan Buckley’s side on the last five occasions they’ve met.
In fact, the last time the Bombers were victorious in this fixture was on ANZAC Day back in 2017.
It’s hard to escape the controversy that both teams had had to endure in previous weeks, with the Bombers having to deal with the fallout from Conor McKenna’s positive COVID-19 test on June 20. In better news for both McKenna and the club, he’s available for selection for Round 5 after being released from quarantine early.
Meanwhile at Collingwood, Steele Sidebottom and Lynden Dunn were both caught breaching strict COVID-19 player protocols over the weekend which will see them suspended for the coming weeks.
Notwithstanding the distractions surrounding both sides heading into Friday night, Collingwood have performed better over the course of the season so far and should make it six wins in a row against the old enemy.
Tip: Collingwood by 19.
Laurence Rosen
West Coast v Sydney
Saturday, 1:45pm, Metricon Stadium
A somewhat tricky game to assess given both sides are coming off a disappointing loss.
The Swans have been far more competitive so far in 2020, particularly in the last few weeks, although the defeat to the Bulldogs last Thursday night was well below their best.
The Eagles look disinterested in their Queensland hub and only showed minimal glimpses of hope in their eventual 48-point loss to Port Adelaide last weekend. Overall their output in all three areas of the ground is just not good enough at present.
It’s hard to tip West Coast right now and with Sydney dominating this fixture in recent years to win four of the last five, you’ve got to put them on top. Playing at Metricon for the first time since 2016 is a slight unknown but their opponents are 0-2 with both defeats over 40 points at the venue this year.
They’ll be keen to atone for the loss to the Dogs in Josh Kennedy’s 250th by hopefully celebrating a win in co-captain Luke Parker’s 200th and pushing back into the eight.
On the other side of the coin, the Eagles look like all they want to do is head back to Perth but surely they can find some semblance of pride and improve.
Tip: Swans by 16.
Andrew Slevison
Geelong v Gold Coast
Saturday, 4:35pm, GMHBA Stadium
If this was a popularity contest, Gold Coast would go in heavy favourites. They come into the game as the darling team of the competition, while Geelong played arguably the least exciting game of footy in recent memory last Sunday against Melbourne.
This will be a big one for the Cats who are celebrating Gary Ablett’s 350th game and Joel Selwood’s 300th. How that affects them, who knows, but it’ll be a big afternoon for the club.
Geelong has won all five previous encounters against Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium by an average winning margin of 87 points, but this is a plucky Suns team that has plenty of confidence and the attacking mindset to take advantage of the defensive Cats.
However, this is likely where their bubble will burst, with Geelong having too much firepower through the middle of the ground to control the clearances and play the game on their terms.
This game will give us a great indication of just how real Gold Coast’s improvements are, given they’ve beaten the stuttering Eagles, the bottom of the table Crows and a winless Fremantle so far.
Tip: Geelong by 18.
Nic Negrepontis
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Saturday, 7:40pm, Marvel Stadium
The Bulldogs have been mightily impressive over the past fortnight with tenacious wins over the Giants and Swans. They appear to have found their groove, at least defensively, having conceded just nine goals in those two games. They’ve been getting away to fairly fast starts and holding comfortable half-time leads before seeing out games at their will.
After upsetting the Giants in Round 2, North have found themselves well behind at three-quarter time against the Swans and Hawks before giving both sides a late scare only to ultimately go down narrowly. They won’t want to be offering up the same gift to the Dogs this week.
These two sides have been remarkably competitive in games against each other over the past few years with no margin being larger than 25 points since 2014 while four of the last five meetings have been decided by seven, two, one and three points. The Dogs have won four of the past six.
While previous form counts for little in this strange old 2020 season, the Bulldogs are the team to be on even if this game is predicted to again be close. Luke Beveridge has his side playing with plenty of toughness and sturdiness at the back and if they can start to unlock some free-scoring footy, they will make themselves extremely tough to get past.
Rhyce Shaw’s Roos are a difficult team to beat but at present are just lacking the quality to kick a winning score.
Tip: Bulldogs by 11.
Andrew Slevison
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
Saturday, 7:40pm, Gabba
Brisbane and Port Adelaide are two of the most entertaining teams to watch in the competition at the present time.
The top-of-the-table clash has the makings to be one of the games of the season with both sides playing fast, free-flowing and free-scoring football.
The Power, who are sitting pretty at the top of the ladder with five wins from as many starts, laid down a marker to the rest of the competition by easily beating early-season premiership fancies West Coast by 48 points.
Fit and firing forward Charlie Dixon is in red-hot form after booting six goals in the win over the Eagles and his presence inside attacking 50 makes him indispensable to Port’s premiership hopes.
Brisbane have won three on the bounce since the season restart but missed the chance to put winless Adelaide to the sword last weekend due to some wayward goalkicking.
Captain Dayne Zorko will miss the clash with a minor calf strain that could see him sidelined for multiple games.
In positive injury news for the Lions, ruckman Stefan Martin is a chance to return against the Power.
Brisbane got the better of Port Adelaide twice last season, but this promises to be a cracking contest under lights at the Gabba.
Tip: Brisbane by 10.
Alex Zaia
Adelaide v Fremantle
Sunday, 1:05pm, Metricon Stadium
It’s a quirk of the fixture that the bottom two sides on the ladder face off against each other as Adelaide and Fremantle prepare to play each other at Metricon Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Both these teams have their own sets of problem at the moment – Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks is putting out spotfires everywhere as he attempts to navigate the challenges of his rookie year as coach.
As for the Dockers, fellow first-year coach Justin Longmuir is battling issues on several fronts and still remains winless heading into Round 5.
Fremantle put in a promising display in the first three quarters against the Suns last week but were eventually outclassed as Gold Coast’s best players took control of the decisive stages of the match.
Notwithstanding a third quarter comeback against Brisbane, Adelaide were beaten in all aspects of their clash last week and were lucky not to lose by more than 37 points.
It’s a lottery who wins this match but by the end of it, one of these sides would have finally tasted victory for the first time this season and will end the round off the bottom of the ladder.
Tip: Fremantle by 5.
Laurence Rosen
Melbourne v Richmond
Sunday, 3:35pm, MCG
The AFL’s fixture reshuffle for round five now sees Melbourne and Richmond remain in Melbourne after they were initially scheduled to play interstate.
The Demons were supposed to play the Swans in Sydney but will now face the Tigers at the MCG after their match against West Coast at Metricon Stadium was postponed due to the Queensland government’s COVID-19 restrictions
It's the second consecutive week Simon Goodwin’s side have had a fixture rescheduled in this unprecedented 2020 season.
In a low-scoring scrap, a fast-finishing Melbourne lost to Geelong by three points last time out with recruit Adam Tomlinson missing a set shot in the dying stages that would have put the Dees in front.
They meet an out of form Richmond who were stunned by St Kilda to the tune of 26 points.
Damien Hardwick swung the axe at selection, but the Tigers still looked flat as they fell to a second straight loss.
The reigning premiers can take heart from an impressive recent record against the Demons, winning the last four encounters.
Tip: Richmond by 28.
Alex Zaia
GWS v Hawthorn
Sunday, 6:10pm, Giants Stadium
Hawthorn and GWS come into this contest off narrow wins, but both teams would be frustrated with aspects of their performance and both have points to prove on Sunday night.
The Hawks had the Giants’ number in 2019, restricting them to just nine goals across two games and picking up big wins. The last time they met at Spotless Stadium, the Giants got over the line in a narrow contest back in 2018.
GWS will likely be without key players in Phil Davis and Zac Williams after both suffered hamstring injuries against Collingwood and their defensive structures fell apart when those two came from the field.
Hawthorn match up well on the Giants’ forwards, with Toby Greene and Jeremy Cameron held to a combined two goals across their two 2019 encounters. This is much closer to a 50-50 game than most would assume.
Tip: Hawthorn by 2.
Nic Negrepontis
